double dip

The news from Spain's statistical agency INE is that the Spanish economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter of 2011. Spain thus joins ten other Western European economies in recession. None of this should come as a surprise. Given the policy…

I have been saying that I expect German data to disappoint and come in on the softer side. Why? This post explains.

The concept of German decoupling from the Eurozone recession may have been wishful thinking. The latest German Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has converged with that of the Eurozone as a whole. Manufacturing PMI is a closely…

Perhaps the main point to take to heart from the events of the last week is the way the recent ECB liquidity measures have apparently been able to stabilise the debt crisis, at least for the time being, even while it is not clear that they…

The eurozone is in a recession right now. And it is the banking sector where downside risk lies. Will the US also double dip? What about China's faltering housing and stock markets?

In January, I wrote my prognosis for 2011. The title was "Cautiously Optimistic Into 2011". I intend to write another post like this early in 2012 with asset allocation and market calls for the new newsletter. But right now I just want to…

Financial news links for 30 November 2011

Britain’s economy is a shambles as the negative impact of austerity has been made plain. Now, mind you, it was already clear from a leaked Greek bailout document that expansionary fiscal consolidation has failed in Greece. But now the…

What was to be a subdued period in the markets is turning into a rout. There have been a number of poor developments that have sent the US dollar broadly higher and has weighed on the highly correlated risk assets, equities, emerging market…

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession.…