double dip

I have sifted through the most recent personal income data and wanted to show you a few charts that might indicate where we’re heading. First, there is personal income.  It’s fallen off a cliff since the recession began. Looking at…

Last week, I wrote a post “Is the recession dating committee preparing for a double dip?” the gist of which was to question whether the NBER recession data committee thought a double dip was likely.  But an e-mail exchange I had this…

As I indicated in my post Grading Obama’s economic policy after one year, I see the President as a triangulating center-left politician of the Bill Clinton variety. The reason we have seen public policy which has been favorable to big…

Here is more of Marc Faber, this time with Stephen Roach joining from Asia. Faber starts things off by making a point I have made many times in the past, namely that the Federal Reserve’s easy money policy is asymmetric; they are quick to…

The Big Picture has picked up on what appears to be an interesting development over at the NBER’s site. It seems like they are hedging there bets on a possible double dip recession beginning in late 2010 or 2011. As you may know, the NBER…

The December 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business was released earlier today showing a reading of 55.9, the highest in nearly four years. This is the most recent of the many indicators demonstrating that the U.S. economy is in a…

Holiday people, as we head into the new year, I’d like to get the pulse of Credit Writedowns readers on the state of the economy. Last night, I started a poll asking how long the recovery will last. I am not sure whether the poll…

Arnold Kling makes an important contribution to the debate about fiscal stimulus and double dip recessions which was also pointed out to me in the comments of my recent double dip post: Paul Krugman provides an analysis showing…

Remember when I said the following: GDP as reported From my view point point, the interesting bit about GDP is NOT inflation (i.e. real vs. nominal GDP), but rather the fact that the number which is reported is a first…

John Hussman’s latest weekly contribution contends that the market is now extremely overvalued, to the point where long-term returns will likely be low. As of last week, the S&P 500 nearly matched the richest valuations, on…