Tag: double dip

The US election and the fiscal cliff

The US election and the fiscal cliff

The election is now over and it’s time to think about what is to come. The most pressing political concern is the so-called fiscal cliff that has resulted from a budget deal Washington’s politicians cobbled together to avoid default during the first debt ceiling debacle. I believe the fiscal cliff is genuinely something to worry about. And I will be debating […]

Why negative nominal rates may be the Fed’s next big move

Why negative nominal rates may be the Fed’s next big move

This crisis has broken a lot of economic taboos, with central banks buying up assets and expanding their balance sheets in a desperate effort  to reflate a debt-laden private sector. The goal is to maintain economic growth, even at the risk of releveraging within the private sector to make up for a loss of private income-based demand. I think things […]

Where Achuthan does explicitly say the recession would begin in Q3 or Q4 2011

Where Achuthan does explicitly say the recession would begin in Q3 or Q4 2011

I would love to see ECRI explain why they have changed the date when they felt recession would begin and whether this means they were wrong in forecasting recession in 2011. yesterday, I said ” I don’t think Achuthan is changing his story in the least.” I can’t say that now. It certainly looks to me now like ECRI was wrong initially and that Achuthan has changed his timetable subsequently.

Is ECRI changing its story on predicting a US recession?

Is ECRI changing its story on predicting a US recession?

I have Bloomberg copy and a video of a recent performance by ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan on Tom Keene’s show. A lot of people have been pouring scorn on business cycle forecaster Achuthan because of his company’s recession forecast. I suspect most of it is driven by bulls annoyed by his downbeat forecast or by the media’s instinct for gotcha with prognosticators.