demand destruction

I am more cautious than optimistic on risk assets and the global economy. From where I sit global growth prospects are not improving; they are weakening.

A fall in commodity prices increases the potential for financial market disruption and non-performing loan problems in China.

You have strong growth in emerging markets offset by weaker growth in the developed economies. Who wins this battle? For now, EM is winning and that is bullish for commodities over the near-term.

Recent data suggest we are at the point where energy prices are creating demand destruction. Economic growth has slowed to below 2.% in the US. Further, ISM data suggest that companies are at the breaking point in their ability to absorb…

Overall, I would say that the exogenous shocks have added to downside risk. I would expect economic weakness in the second half of 2011. If economic weakness does materialize in the US, I would expect lower long-term interest rates. Many…

From the International Business Times and Andy Lees at UBS: Reports that central China's Hubei province has joined a growing list of regions facing coal shortages with a warning that it is very likely to start power rationing later this…

What we would like to see is commodity prices falling or stagnating. And that would certainly be the case if demand destruction is already beginning as the IEA analysis suggests. Moreover, QE is ending in June. So that won't be a factor in…

I would argue that inflation expectations are rising as we speak. They are still anchored but they will not be if they continue to rise any more. And if inflation expectations become unanchored, it will mean that policy tightening will have…

This morning's note from UBS' Andy Lees addresses something about which I am sceptical regarding the escalating Libyan conflict: global spare oil capacity. I am in the same camp with Jeremy Grantham. Call it peak resources, peak oil,…

Bill Fleckenstein was back talking to Dylan Ratigan about the source of rising oil prices. (See the last Fleckenstein video here). Clearly, supply constraints and increased demand in emerging markets play the central role in creating a…