Tag: currencies

Steve Hanke on currency boards and Paul Brodsky on bottom-up investing

I haven’t posted to the blog portion of Credit Writedowns for some time because my schedule has been filled producing the finance show Boom Bust on RT. So I apologize for not having a lot of content for you. Last week, I hosted my first complete show on the TV show I produce called Boom Bust because the anchor, the wonderful Erin Ade, was out sick. It’s on currency boards and bottoms up investing. I also do a bit of a monologue on Apple.

Can the Jobs Data Give the Dollar Another Leg Up?

Can the Jobs Data Give the Dollar Another Leg Up?

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains that were scored largely in response to Draghi’s revelation that QE and a negative deposit rate were discussed at the ECB meeting. The consensus expects that the US economy grew 200k jobs last month and that the unemployment rate ticked down to 6.6% from 6.7%. In addition, the ISM for the service sector saw a strong recovery, providing new information we did not have at the start of the week. The bottom-line here is that US economic growth picked up in late Q1.

Calm before the Storm?

Calm before the Storm?

The US dollar is narrowly mixed, largely within its well-worn trading ranges against the major currencies with two exceptions. There have been several marginal developments over the 24 hours that are shaping the investment climate.

Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model for Q2 2014

Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model for Q2 2014

We view Q1 2014 as a potential turning point for EM this year, just as the May 22 Bernanke speech on tapering was last year. In recent weeks, EM has digested the start of Fed tapering, devaluations in Argentina and Kazakhstan, the Crimean crisis, a deeper than expected China slowdown coupled with a shift in its FX regime, and now potentially earlier than anticipated Fed rate hikes.

Events in China and Ukraine are dominant macro drivers

Weekend developments will dominate the first part of the week ahead. Two developments stand out. First, China announced a doubling of the permissible band from 1.0% to 2.0% around the daily fix. The PBOC deliberately and preemptively facilitated the narrowing of onshore and offshore yuan interest rates to avoid a new influx of capital that might have been spurred by the widening of the trading band. The second development over the weekend was the Crimean referendum.

PBOC Announces CNY Band-Widening

PBOC Announces CNY Band-Widening

The PBOC announced a band-widening for USD/CNY over the weekend, doubling the allowable band around the fix rate to +/- 2%. Off of Friday’s fix, the new band is 6.01-6.26 vs. 6.07-6.20 previously. The USD/CNY band was last widened in April 2012 from +/- 0.5%, and before that in May 2007 from +/- 0.3%.

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

US data have been better

European periphery market access continues to improve

Dollar weakness may be China-related

Gold continues to get safe haven bid

China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt

Ukraine has become a military issue; contagion will increase

A full-blown emerging markets crisis is now likely

Russia: Economic Vulnerabilities

Russia: Economic Vulnerabilities

By Marc Chandler There is a common perception that Russia move on Crimea shows its strength. A closer examination suggests it is more complicated that it may seem. Like the bully at the school yard, the aggressiveness conceals weaknesses. Simply put, Russia felt threatened and for good reason. The democratic coup in the Ukraine threatened a potentially strategic loss for […]

Bitcoin is not a currency

Bitcoin is not a currency

Japan has just decided that Bitcoin is not a currency, which subjects it to sales and income taxes. This is consistent with the view of the Canadian Revenue Service, which has found Bitcoin to be property and not a legal currency, and the United Kingdom, which leaning towards treating Bitcoin as a voucher and subject to VAT.