James Montier reveals data showing everyone knows stocks are overvalued. But they act as if they believe they can get out before the bottom falls out. This will end badly when the market stalls out.
Rotating into emerging market equities as the US market soars is Jeremy Grantham’s recommendation. That’s a daunting prospect for most US retail investors. Here’s why.
Jeremy Grantham discussed his recent US market commentary with Consuelo Mack. The essence of Grantham’s comments were bearish for the US, suggesting investors could expect only a couple of percent real return over the next couple of decades in US equities. He suggests rotating into Emerging Markets.
Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio says we are late in the economic cycle and should expect good things from asset markets. But central banks will have a tricky time dealing with the consequences.
If bitcoin and its equivalents can deliver what its champions promise, what’s not to like? Well, the rub is what Economist Abba Lerner said “The modern state can make anything it chooses generally acceptable as money”.
Veteran value investor Jeremy Grantham says that we won’t see an imminent end to the US bull market. He expects a melt-up, not a meltdown. But Grantham goes on to say that we will see an asset bubble implosion in 2019, with as much as 50% downside.
Recently I have indicated I see a lot of problems in asset markets despite the economic acceleration in Europe, Japan, and the US. Commercial real estate is a problem that I want to highlight briefly since I believe it will be a locus of distress in the next global downturn.
Since the EU had been a growth laggard due to the European sovereign debt crisis, the pickup in growth there is encouraging. In particular, Italy deserves mention as it has lagged and is where I believe the battle for the EU’s future will be won. Some thoughts below
“I had to cover my shorts.” That’s what my friend Matt told me after the company came out with its quarterly earnings and issued upbeat projections. I asked Matt, “how long are you going to keep shorting these companies. This is like the 10th time you’ve been forced to cover.” […]
I don’t know if there is a German housing bubble or even whether there will be one. I do know that we hear a lot about it in the press – the result of zero, even negative, interest rates. So let me give you a little anecdote from my trip to Germany last week.
So where did they get the money?
It’s an all too familiar story. Inflows of foreign capital, mainly from Scandinavian banks, attracted by low interest rates and a population hungry for credit – credit advanced, of course, against property. Latvian house prices soared and there was a construction boom. Easy credit, wealth effects and incomes from construction and real estate activities also fuelled a consumption boom: suddenly Latvia, one of the poorest countries in Europe, was flooded with Porsches and Bentleys.
There is definitely a technology bubble brewing. And it will end badly. Some people are going to get rich though – and not necessarily undeservedly so. Some thoughts below I am going to make this very short. Valuations in the private Internet space are out of control and they have […]