Andrew Lees

The S&P has gone from 2 standard deviations below the 20-day moving average on the 16th June to 2 standard deviations above it now, something it did prior to the 87 crash when it rallied 6.4% in the week prior to the crash. It has been…

Andy Lees argues insufficient dollars are getting into the system from the US current account deficit to finance the growth in global trade, so the stock of these international dollars is falling relative to the value of world trade. He…

The mitigating factors are the recent manufacturing data and the pickup in small business credit. I especially like to see small business with access to and take up of credit because that could mean renewed hiring. The jobless claims…

A world in which basic natural resources are neither cheap nor abundant and in which the debt levels in leading economies are very high is one prone to geopolitical instability.

Here’s an interesting note from UBS’ Andy Lees on the background story to the oil market. You may have heard that US President Obama decided to release some of the oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This move was bearish for…

The last time the curve was this flat was during the panic in 2008. So I am still concerned that the potential for a more abrupt slowing exists. So far growth remains robust.

If you have fewer players operating wells, then the supply should be lower. It sounds to me like the rush to buy up natural gas acreage has strained balance sheets in a way that will force up prices down the line.

I am concerned that the emerging markets have overheated and are now reversing direction quickly. Policy rates are still low when adjusted for inflation. But, given the economic weakness now manifest across North America and Europe, the…

We are in a mid-cycle slowdown not dissimilar to the ones we experienced in 1995 or 2005. I am remarkably sanguine about the ability of policy makers to induce a cyclical recovery via fiscal and monetary stimulus. And, of course things…

To sum up: Non-performing loans look to be a full 10% of Chinese GDP. That’s high. The Chinese government is confronting this writedown problem head-on. While a number of analysts have opinions on the measures just taken, it is far from…