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Swiss citizens think a large Swiss bank will fail

Swiss citizens think a large Swiss bank will fail

This comes from French-language Swiss daily Le Temps: Over 50% of respondents in Geneva surveyed by the HEG School of Management believe that the bankruptcy of a large institution is likely. The Swiss political world is clearly convinced that it will never let one of the major banks in the country go bankrupt. Despite the rescue of UBS by the […]

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Feed problem fixed

I have gotten two kind notes that the feed is screwy again, posting links multiple times. Who do I blame? Feedburner of course. I have solved the problem but I would love a nice way to get away from Feedburner. They are really a problem. If anyone is still seeing the problem, let me know.

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Jamie Dimon: ‘we don’t need’ your money

On the back of a decent quarter at JPMorgan Chase, CEO Jamie Dimon has signalled his desire to repay government money as quickly as possible and remove the strings attached to that money.  Dimon has often said that JPMorgan Chase did not need the TARP bailout money it has received and only accepted  because it was foisted upon them. When […]

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U.S. jobless claims fall to 3-month low, still over 600,000

U.S. jobless claims fall to 3-month low, still over 600,000

Jobless claims in the U.S. fell to a three month low of 610,000 on a seasonally-adjusted basis in another clear sign that fewer people are filing for jobless claims than early in the year.  Nevertheless, 600,000 more filed for claims this past week and a record 6 million are still claiming benefits. I have been fairly clear recently that I […]

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UBS is too big for Switzerland

I am sure you have seen the catastrophic financial results of Swiss bank UBS released this week. I have been saying for quite some time that UBS is too big to fail, but also too big to bail for tiny Switzerland. In my view, the recent financial results demonstrate that, although this situation has stabilised somewhat, UBS still represents a […]

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Jim Grant says U.S. policy response is inflationary

Jim Grant is definitely not in the deflation camp. He believes a robust policy response and enormous expansion in the Fed balance sheet is storing up monster inflationary forces which could take holding a recovery. As a result, he is quite bearish on treasury bonds. He also says “the dollar is not the worst brad of paper money.”

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Turning Japanese and understanding the consequence of policy half-measures

This is another post I originally ran on Naked Capitalism last month. As you know, I have turned more positive about the potential for a cyclical economic recovery. However, I am unchanged regarding much of the sentiment expressed in this post – that any upturn must be considered with suspicion because the underlying fundamentals of the U.S. and global economies […]

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Barack Obama as Herbert Hoover

Barack Obama as Herbert Hoover

This is a post I originally posted over at Yves Smith’s site, Naked Capitalism, in April 2008. My intent here is not to malign Obama, Roosevelt or Hoover or make facile comparison but to identify important differences between the economic situation facing Obama and the one that faced Roosevelt. In my view, Obama faces a situation more akin to the one Herbert Hoover was forced to deal with because the economy is sill bottoming, unemployment is still rising and consumer spending is still falling. On the other hand, Roosevelt had the advantage of coming into office just as recession ended. This is an important difference in terms of political and economic constraints.

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Links: 2009-04-14

The first link should be a reminder of how powerful the downtrend has been. Also, regarding the inventory purge now ongoing, inventories do not even actually have to be rebuilt to get a statistical up-move going forward, they have to be purged less severely. Singapore’s economy contracts 20pc in first quarter The hyperactive Fed finds its cherished independence is on […]

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In transit

I am in London right now and through next Monday, I will also be on European time, so expect posts earlier than usual. Also, I will be in transit for the rest of the day today. So posting will be light or non-existent. I’l be back soon. Cheers. Ed

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A conversation with Robert Caro on Charlie Rose

One of my favorite books is “The Power Broker,” a book for which Robert Caro won a Pulitzer Prize. It documents the life and times of master builder Robert Moses, who shaped New York City and American and world city planning for decades. Charlie Rose talks about politics and power with the author, who has also written a classic three-volume […]

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Green Shoots over Thin Ice

John Hussman has a nice piece out named “Green Shoots over Thin Ice. (hat tip Scott)” Below is the core of his argument regarding the recent rally in stocks and the free gift to bondholders. I have bolded parts of the original to add emphasis. Thus far, we’ve got a strong rally off the recent trough, with uninspiring sponsorship but […]

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