Latest Posts

Nationwide: Press release on Dunfermline acquisition

Dunfermline, the largest uilding society in Scotland was forced into the hands of the Nationwide.  This happened only after the U.K. government was forced to pony up 1.6 billion pounds – not the best of news for Gordon Brown before a major world summit. As the Times Online says: The state-backed rescue brings to six the number of UK deposit […]

Is the ECB all-in on printing money?

Two weeks ago, the Fed roiled bond markets by signalling it would start to purchase Treasury bonds with printed money – the very definition of inflation.   Now, its the ECB’s turn to show it can inflate with the best of them.  They have adopted extraordinary measures despite the view of many that they have not inflated. But, the ECB […]

Spain gets deflation

Spain gets deflation

Spain is one of the original four bubble economies to implode.  This group includes the U.S., the U.K. and Ireland.  Unfortunately for the Spanish, in the wake of their property crash, things in Spain are looking particularly bleak with unemployment rising, GDP plummeting, and banks like Caja Castilla-La Mancha and property developers like Martinsa Fadesa and Drac hitting the skids.  Add deflation […]

Links: 2009-03-30

Zero Hedge: Exclusive: AIG Was Responsible For The Banks’ January & February Profitability Basically Citi and BofA may have been telling tall tales about profitability in January and February. How a Modern Depression Might Look — If the U.S. Gets There – WSJ Letter to FASB: Don’t Change Mark-to-Market! – Rolfe Winkler Reflation and How to Exploit It – WSJ […]

Chart of the day: Dow 1914-1929 vs. 1982-1999

Chart of the day: Dow 1914-1929 vs. 1982-1999

Has the bear market come to an end? It is certainly hard to say. In January, I called for 10% down in U.S. equities, which is basically where we are now (7900 on the Dow vs. the present 7776). My view has been that we would break through 2002 and 1998 lows to the down side before this was over […]

Tim Geithner defends bailout plan on “Meet the Press”

Tim Geithner defends bailout plan on “Meet the Press”

Below is the video clip of U.S. Treasury Secretary defending his bailout plan which the likes of Paul Krugman have called “a plan to rearrange the deck chairs and hope that that keeps us from hitting the iceberg.” The investors’ money is at risk. They can lose all their money. Now, again, you have to compare these to the alternatives. […]

Spain intervenes to save Caja Castilla La Mancha

This comes via Edward Hugh at “A Fistful of Euros“: The governing council of the Bank of Spain has taken the decision to intervene in the operation of the Caja after carrying out an analysis of its financial position, thus taking as read that the negotiations which might have lead to its merger with the Andalucian ‘Unicaja’ have not been […]

Links: 2009-03-29

Mauldin on Housing? – CR This points out the problems with data analysis during this difficult downturn (hat tip stiletto heels) The New Hard Times – NY Times Video hat tip Barry Ritholtz ‘Moshi-moshi’ recession – Japan Times You know times are hard when Japanese start giving up their cell phones! The number of cell-phone shipments in Japan have dropped […]

More problems at three European financial institutions

This weekend has seen two major European financial institutions forced into the hands of government and a third on the verge of major new asset writedowns and job cuts. The events highlight the fragility of European banking and the need for concrete solutions at the upcoming G-20 summit in London. First, in the UK, you may have seen a link […]

Data watchers beware, huge seasonal adjustments distort the numbers

This comes from Alan Abelson at Barron’s talking about seasonal adjustments for February data:   The misleading figures cut across a wide swath of the economy, encompassing housing, manufacturing, employment — you name it. The leading agent of deception, unintentional or otherwise, has been that old sly villain, seasonal adjustment. As it turns out, the seasons don’t need adjustment as […]

Links: 2009-03-28

Toxic Asset Plan May Appeal Little to Banks on Write-Down Rule Two Graphs That Tell It All On Spain – Edward Hugh A New Kind of Bank Stress Test — John Lousbury YouTube – Hey Paul Krugman (A song, A plea) this is funny stuff. The Market Mystique – Paul Krugman, NY Times Deeper And Deeper – Andrew Sullivan The […]

Weekend Video: A Conversation with Tim Geithner at CFR

This video from yesterday’s Council on Foreign Relations symposium gives Treasury Seretary Tim Geithner a chance to explain why he has constructed his bailout plan in the way he has. Rather than editorialize the video, I will provide it without comment.  I do suggest you watch it if you want to develop a well-informed view on his bailout package. Just […]