Credit Writedowns

I had some bullish economic thoughts last week. But I also embedded a warning about support for bonds being broken. Yields at the long end of the US Treasury curve are rising, potentially to the top of a range between 1.00% and 1.50% and…

Let's look at upside potential instead of downside risk today. And then let's put it in the context of the three yield curve outcomes I have posited. The virus I'll start with the thing that everything else seems dependent on these days,…

Happy Friday! Let's use this time to run through the latest employment numbers and what they mean regarding the economic outlook. And so, I want to start from a self-quote I made yesterday from a January 8 post. The reverse radical…

Economically, I would say we're out of the woods for a recession now except to the degree mutant variants force new lockdowns. Four data points, real quick here. The 14-day change in hospitalization is -23%, with 91,440 hospitalizations…

The title of the post is supposed to marry what's happening on the pandemic front with what's happening in financial markets. The gist is that, in a world where unexpected levels of economic resiliency has been the norm, we should wonder…

I've been thinking about what happened with share prices of GameStop and other companies that were bid up last week and want to give you a few thoughts on what I think happened and why it matters. Part of this is about the mechanics of…

You know this is going to be a redonkulous post by the name. So I am warning you ahead of time. It's going to be super macro - so half thought piece and half tactical. Let's see how many different interrelated topics I can manage to…

I am in an even more hopeful mood now than ever. But, at the same time, I still have my worries about downside risks given how euphoric asset markets have been and how mediocre economic data have been. I think that split between hope and…

As the new year has begun, I've been thinking a lot about the 'look through' narrative that sees the post-pandemic light at the end of a dark tunnel. While I have a lot of sympathy for the thought that pent-up demand for services will drive…

Jobless claims data around the holiday season is marred by lots of seasonality. And so, only in the coming weeks are we likely to get a 'clean' look at what's going on in real time. The latest report shows a step change that is worrying,…