Why my base case for 2020 is recession

Back at the end of July, I was talking about my macro thesis. And I led off writing this:

The US is the laggard in this slowing but is affected as well. From a markets perspective, that means a convergence to zero, with yield curves flattening as nominal growth rates contract.

I didn’t mention the word recession of course. That’s because we’re not there y…

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