The trade-currency war will crystallize downside risks

Yesterday, the overarching message of my post was this bit:

"as we think of potential outcomes, policy error has to be a real concern here, especially in 2020 once the cumulative impact of all this takes its full measure."

I don't think the data show a recession baked into the cake. There's no reason to think best-case outcomes are any less likely to occu…

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