Overkill on recession worries

I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short answer is no. What follows below is the longer answer, in which I talk of recession as a tail risk and the curve as …

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