Daily

This post title may not seem relevant right now. But, let me explain it first. I was looking through my post drafts folder this morning, deleting ones that never made it to publication. And this post title popped up as having been…

You've heard me throw the 'D' word around on a couple of occasions - sometimes to signal policy makers are trying to avoid that outcome, but other times to signal this is looking like one. So, which is it? We don't know yet. But let me use…

The liquidity fiction When the Federal Reserve launched its bond buying programs during the Great Financial Crisis over a decade ago, it told the world that it was merely providing liquidity to markets that had needed it. It was acting as…

Framing the problem The question on my mind today is about best case economic outcomes. How does a country get through the Covid-19 pandemic with the least bad economic outcome? And in thinking about that question, I want to do three…

Morning thoughts Let's hit on several themes today that I've covered in the past which are advancing. The overall context here is that we have escaped a first wave of dreadful information flow, with policy makers doing their utmost to take…

Markets As I write this, futures for the US market show another 3% rally in the offing at today's open. This follows a 7% move yesterday and belies the pain in the real economy. And so, increasingly, I am seeing comments from market…

This weekend was a good one, with nothing too exciting roiling markets. So, rather than focussing on the near term, let me get out my crystal ball today and tell you what I see coming down the line. I'll break it up into discrete bits…

Twelve years I have been at this for 12 years now. It seems remarkable that I have been writing this site, Credit Writedowns, for that long because I can remember the early days like they were yesterday. I was thinking about this fact -…

The eye of this economic and healthcare storm has passed over us and we are just now getting hit with the backside of the storm. And so, as I await the initial jobless claims report at 8:30 Am EDT, the question is: how bad will it be? But…

The phase of Knightian Uncertainty ends soon I am going to keep it brief today because the sense I have had for the last few days is that we have finally reached a news plateau on this pandemic. The news flow is horrific, with alarming…