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Win Thin 153 posts 0 comments

Win Thin is the Head of Emerging Markets Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. He has a broad international background with a special interest in developing markets. Win received his Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University in 1995, specializing in international and development Economics. He received an MA from Georgetown University in 1985 and a B.A. from Brandeis University 1983.

Markets

Emerging Market Equity Allocation Model for Q2 2014

Win Thin Mar 26, 2014

We view Q1 2014 as a potential turning point for EM this year, just as the May 22 Bernanke speech on tapering was last year. In recent weeks, EM has digested the start of Fed tapering, devaluations in Argentina and Kazakhstan, the Crimean…

Markets

PBOC Announces CNY Band-Widening

Win Thin Mar 16, 2014

The PBOC announced a band-widening for USD/CNY over the weekend, doubling the allowable band around the fix rate to +/- 2%. Off of Friday’s fix, the new band is 6.01-6.26 vs. 6.07-6.20 previously. The USD/CNY band was last widened in April…

Markets

EM: Escalation in Crimea, China concerns, Brazilian inflation and more

Win Thin Mar 13, 2014

By WIn Thin and Ilan Solot 1) The annexation of Crimea by Russia represents an important escalation of the crisis 2) China has re-emerged as a concern for markets 3) Turkish political tensions are rising again ahead of March 30 local…

Markets

EM Preview: The Crimean crisis threatens to escalate

Win Thin Mar 10, 2014

By Win Thin and Ilan Solot The Crimean crisis threatens to escalate again this week. Russian forces in Crimea have been increased and they are consolidating their control of Crimea. This involves neutralizing Ukrainian bases in Crimea and…

Economy

Another Short History Lesson On Russia and Ukraine

Win Thin Mar 3, 2014

By WIn Thin Parallels have already been drawn between current events in Ukraine and the Russian-Georgian conflict of 2008. These parallels are unmistakable, yet the one big difference so far is that Ukraine has taken care not to give…

Political Economy

A Short History Lesson On Ukraine and Crimea

Win Thin Feb 28, 2014

By Win Thin A little history lesson about Ukraine and Crimea may help put recent developments into better perspective. What emerges is a very clear understanding of why both Russia and Ukraine feel that they each have historical precedent…

Markets

No near-term currency regime change in China

Win Thin Feb 26, 2014

Spot USD/CNY closed above the fix today for the first time since September 2012. Other factors are at work in China currently, making it even harder to read the true intentions of Chinese policymakers. All of these developments come against…

Markets

The carry trade, emerging markets and Japanese retail investors

Win Thin Feb 5, 2014

The share of EM-denominated Uridashi bonds has increased steadily from less than 10% in 2006 to nearly 55% in both 2012 and 2013. So far in 2014, that EM share has risen to over 60%. It is clear that the growth in EM Uridashi issuance has…

Markets

The latest picture in Emerging markets and EM currencies

Win Thin Jan 30, 2014

By Win Thin and Ilan Solot With their backs against the wall, policy changes are ramping up amongst major EM countries. Yet the positive impact has been limited so far. We do note that countries that tightened aggressively and…

Markets

Recent Policy Developments in Russia

Win Thin Jan 29, 2014

Russian Economy Minister Ulyukayev proposed a possible delay to the ruble free float from the current 2015 target. Remarks are noteworthy, as most officials have consistently said the float would come in 2015. He added that the ruble float…