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Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Economy

US commercial banks’ changing asset mix

Sober Look Feb 18, 2014

Loan growth rate in the US, while better than in the Eurozone, remains on a downward path. The latest figures suggest that loans are increasing at less than 2%, while deposits continue to grow at 6-7% per year.

Political Economy

Venezuela: Taking it to the streets in Caracas

Sober Look Feb 17, 2014

Conditions in Venezuela are reaching boiling point. Venezuelans - particularly students - are taking it to the streets, as protests sparked by worsening living conditions have turned violent (see story). Inadequate supplies of food and…

Markets

The shrinking MBS market

Sober Look Feb 16, 2014

The supply of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continues to fall behind the potential demand - even with the Fed's taper in place. New issuance has steadily declined over the past year, with the Fed becoming an increasingly larger…

Markets

Ukraine on the brink

Sober Look Feb 14, 2014

Ukraine's sovereign CDS spread is approaching the high reached right before the Russian bailout was announced. The currency is nearing the pre-bail-out lows.

Political Economy

ECB’s next steps could involve suspending SMP sterilization – instant QE

Sober Look Feb 5, 2014

Today Credit Suisse confirmed our earlier assessment that the ECB will be shifting toward a looser monetary stance in the near future via "suspension of the SMP sterilization".

Economy

An overreaction to the ISM manufacturing report

Sober Look Feb 4, 2014

Today's ISM manufacturing PMI number spooked jittery US equity investors, sending stocks sharply lower (with VIX climbing above 20). The headline number came in about 9% below expectations. It seems that some of the manufacturing softness…

Political Economy

Seven latest developments in Venezuela – a crisis in the making

Sober Look Feb 3, 2014

Below are seven recent developments in Venezuela's economy

Political Economy

Five reasons the ECB will act in the months ahead

Sober Look Feb 1, 2014

It may be something symbolic such as a small rate cut or possibly a more substantial move such as a new LTRO program, but the European Central Bank will be forced to loosen monetary policy in the near future.

Economy

PCE inflation rate lowest since 2009, holds key to future Fed policy moves

Sober Look Jan 30, 2014

Behind all the noisy economic data over the past month, one key measure is telling the central bank to remain cautious. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the so-called PCE price index has grown less than 1% over the past year (chart…

Markets

Russia bucks the trend – talks the ruble lower

Sober Look Jan 29, 2014

Central banks of several nations who are experiencing sharp currency declines are taking action to stabilize the situation. But not the Russians. The nation's central bank likes the weak ruble because the currency decline boosts the…