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Sober Look 181 posts 0 comments

Sober Look is a no-hype financial markets/macro blog that typically relies on data analysis, primary sources, and original materials. We keep it concise, to the point, with no self-promoting nonsense, and no long-winded opinions. If you are looking for Armageddon predictions or conspiracy theories, you will be thoroughly disappointed. Topics include financial markets, banking, asset management, risk management, derivatives, global economy, policy, and regulation, with the emphasis on finance education. Follow him on his blog or twitter.

Economy

Merkel goes to China to halt German economic slowdown

Sober Look Jul 7, 2014

By Sober Look The yield spread between US treasuries and German government bonds hit a new high last week (see chart). Was this divergence in rates simply a response to the ECB action last month (see post) in combination with stronger jobs…

Economy

Four key reasons for capex accelerating

Sober Look Apr 12, 2014

Sober Look's received a number of e-mails regarding the recent post on the possibility that rising CAPEX spending in the US is driving corporations to tap their credit facilities, thus increasing loan growth. Most were highly critical of…

Economy

The US jobs market is healing

Sober Look Apr 3, 2014

We are seeing signs of significant improvements in US labor markets. The ADP report today was certainly an indication of recovery from the winter slowdown. One area to watch in the ADP report is construction, as construction payrolls have…

Markets

Jumbos still cheaper than conforming mortgages

Sober Look Apr 2, 2014

For years mortgage rates on "jumbo" loans have been higher than for traditional (conforming) mortgages. Since jumbo loans were larger than the upper limit permitted to be packaged and sold to Fannie and Freddie, banks would typically charge…

Economy

Eurozone credit contraction continues

Sober Look Mar 29, 2014

Private loan balances in the euro area continue to decline. Last month's drop of 2.2% from the previous year was worse than had been expected by economists.

Markets

Markets dismiss the risk of higher rates inhibiting growth

Sober Look Mar 24, 2014

Many continue to argue that the rate normalization taking place now will slow business activity in the US. Good luck betting on that however. There is no question that corporate America had benefited tremendously from extraordinarily low…

Markets

Treasury market shifts as market prepares for rate “normalization”

Sober Look Mar 23, 2014

Treasuries once again experienced what amounts to a sharp curve flattening in recent days. The market action resembled what took place after the initial announcement of taper back in December. The yields in the "belly" of the curve have…

Economy

Capex may be behind the sudden improvement in US loan growth

Sober Look Mar 16, 2014

Credit growth in the US seems to have stabilized and may be on the rise. It's worth mentioning that the bottom in loan growth just happened to correspond to the start of Fed's taper. Coincidence? Maybe. But why is corporate America…

Economy

Latest data confirm China slowdown

Sober Look Mar 14, 2014

As a confirmation of a significant downward adjustment to China's growth, a battery of economic reports yesterday morning all came in materially below expectations.

Economy

Banks shedding asset management businesses

Sober Look Mar 10, 2014

Here is a chart showing the number of transactions that involve acquisitions of an asset management business by year. It tells us about a couple of trends developing in recent years.