What Happens Next?

The question is not whether Greece will default but what will happen once it has. If Greece defaults but stays in the euro, not only will it not solve the underlying lack of competitiveness, but markets will immediately turn their attention…

The Case for Human Ingenuity

There are essentially three reasons why I think oil prices will go through a rather dramatic correction over the next several years: 1. Many investors who, in recent years, have added commodities to their portfolios as a hedge will…

Confessions of an Investor

By Niels Jensen The Absolute Return Letter, April 2011 “When models turn on, brains turn off.” Til Schulman I have been thinking a great deal about risk over the past couple of years. The depth of the financial crisis…

From Dublin to Tripoli

The Absolute Return Letter, March 2011 By Niels Jensen “Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes” Oscar Wilde A remarkable month Two remarkable events unfolded during the month of February. One cleared…

Find the Hat

“If spending an amount equal to half of the world’s second largest GDP to buy up foreign currencies is not currency manipulation, then what is?” -Martin Wolf, Financial Times The perils of Chicago Many moons ago, long before I…

The Dirty Dozen

In the following post I list a number of risk factors which I believe investors should give serious consideration, but I do not for one second pretend for that list to be exhaustive. Neither should you read anything into the order of which…

Four Rather Sick Patients

The Absolute Return Letter, November 2010 by Niels Jensen “If I were BoJ, I would set a trap for all the currency speculators in the world. I would intervene in the currency market, appearing unsuccessfully, to lure speculators to…

Insolvency Too

by Niels Jensen “There are those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know.” -John Kenneth Galbraith On 1st January 2013, a new directive regulating insurance companies which conduct business within the EU will come…

Beggar thy Neighbour

“I am deeply ashamed to know that I won't be able to pay our staff. They have got mortgages, children. What am I supposed to do?" Jesus Manuel Ampero, Mayor of Cenicientos (Spain) It has been an unpredictable summer. Investors…

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