Author: Global Macro Monitor

Global Macro Monitor is a site designed as a “go to” source for traders, investors, policymakers and any interested in markets and the global economy. It provides informed opinion, timely market information, sources, and links.

Here are my most recent posts

Gold Falters

Gold Falters

Gold’s 30 percent parabolic move from July 1 to September 6 is beginning to falter. Maybe the yellow metal is just out of gas and needs to consolidate a little or maybe it’s something bigger, such as the liquidity issues in the European banking system.

S&P500 Takes the road less traveled

S&P500 Takes the road less traveled

Our post of August 22nd, S&P500 Faces a Fork in the Road, noted the S&P500 faced a fork in the road. One path, the 2010 bullish trajectory bolstered by Jackson Hole; the other, the bearish 2008 trajectory, the result of, say, a European sovereign induced banking crisis. From the post to yesterday’s close, the S&P500 was up almost 8.5 percent generating its “best eight-day gain since 2009.“ Not a lot of fundamental news to explain the rally so let’s just call it for what it is/was, a Robert Frost rally.

That sure looks like a W bottom on the S&P500

That sure looks like a W bottom on the S&P500

Not the classic trajectory and confirmation, not to mention the compressed time frame, but you’ve got to respect the price action. The macro swans are still out, so the question is are they priced? We don’t know and not willing to make a huge bet either way. The next negative headline and tape bomb will be the true test.

Week in Review: Hurricane ‘I-Lean’ Lifts Markets

Week in Review: Hurricane ‘I-Lean’ Lifts Markets

Reports that hedge funds, with almost no tolerance for short-term pain, have opened the biggest net short positions since early 2008 has driven a relatively low volume short covering rally. We even heard predictions of a 400 point drop in the Nasdaq if Mr. Ben didn’t announce QE3. We guess they were positioned for it and had a front row seat at Friday’s performance of the Nutcracker