We have reached end-of-paradigm – the final failure of microeconomics masquerading as macro. The solution, the new macro paradigm, requires monetary literacy and numeracy. And this can only be achieved by removing the conceptual blinders by which micro models encircle the minds and cover the intellectual eyes of all the economics professionals and policy makers who mistakenly believe they are seeing in macro.
Author: John Lounsbury
by Frank Li and Derryl Hermanutz, Guest Authors from Global Economic Intersection This is the fifth article of the series: “Towards An Ideal Form of Government”. In my 1/20/2012 post (Democracy and Communism: Are They Really the Same?), I stated: “Democracy, as we know it today, is akin to […]
North Korea’s dear leader, Kim II, died a few days ago. His 3rd son is now in charge, as Kim III, Kim Jong Un (pictured). There is no better time to talk about North Korea than now, as evidenced by some timely expert opinions. So it’s time for me to chip in my two cents. I will briefly but succinctly answer five pertinent questions as follows
There is a road open for China involving controlled inflation that would lead to re-balancing, both domestically and internationally, which has some uncertainties. These must be compared to those of sustaining the export-led growth model, basically an even bigger currency mismatch in the PBoC balance sheet and ever more unproductive capital investments.
From Global Economic Intersection Guest author: Keith Jurow is the author of the MVP Housing Market Report. This article was posted at Minyanville with the title “There Is No Housing Bottom in Sight” At the end of June 2011, macromarkets.com released the results of a poll in which 108 leading […]
Chinese goods cost more in China because of currency, taxes, transportation,logistics and inflation. The Chinese get the jobs, while Americans get the consumer products; The Chinese government gets the dollar, but the U.S government gets to spend the dollar! The Chinese like to say: the Americans get a better deal!
Last week the NY Times covered the division within the economic community over the way out of the USA’s overspending / balance budgeting.
“Reasonable people can sit down and, apart from any political or policy motivations, come up with different answers,” said Robert S. Chirinko, a finance professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago who studies corporate taxation.
No doubt this is true. The economic community’s solutions range from more deficit spending stimulus (on the theory that boosting the economy will boost tax revenues to balance the budget) to out-and-out cutting spending (on the theory that re-balancing, while causing short-term pain, will spur long-term growth). Both extremes have some basis in main stream economic studies.
Last week the French (banks and government) proposed a roll-over of Greek debt into new bonds, some with maturities as long as 30 years. By Thursday German lenders, insurers and government agreed to join the plan, which would cover debts falling due from now until the end of 2014. As France and Germany are by far the largest Greek creditors, the world heaved a big sigh of relief as a Greek default was going to be avoided, at least temporarily. Stock markets around the world staged huge rallies. Armageddon had been avoided again.
In China, the persistence of inflation pressure has brought “shadow banking” into a topic of hot debate recently. According to a study issued by the People’s Bank of China in 2010, non-banking sector lending has expanded to 63.3 trillion Yuan, ($10 trillion), 44.4% of total lending activities of China’s economy.
When we tighten our belts, it means that we are trying to build up our savings. We do this by spending less. But spending drives our economy. Sales create jobs. So unless Obama has a secret plan to reverse three decades of current account deficits, the Government needs to loosen its belt when we tighten ours. If it doesn’t, then millions of us will lose our shirts.
I feel the media in India has become quite complacent about the tawdry condition of free speech in India. All too often journalists can be warned off a seamy story by a tiny exercise of power or influence. All too often, the crooks are able to buy the loyalty of a journalist quite easily. There isn’t enough intellectualism going around, among the men and women in the media. Eshwar Sundaresan, writing in Dawn, says that India badly needs more journalists of the character of Pakistan’s Najam Sethi. This is one of many areas where India’s success in the last 20 years is leading to an erosion of the very foundations of that success.
The persistence of the decline in discretionary spending online for consumer durable goods suggests that consumers have come to terms with the need for a longer term frugality — perhaps not wishing to repeat the premature “green shoots” optimism of early 2009.