Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Daily

Some reasonably bullish thoughts on the fourth US wave

Edward Harrison Mar 30, 2021

The headlines I'm seeing this morning are downbeat. They point to an imminent coronavirus wave from mutant strains and a continued rise in interest rates, two outcomes I have warned about. But I am 'looking through' these headlines because…

Daily

Jobless claims under pre-pandemic peak for first time

Edward Harrison Mar 25, 2021

Last week's initial jobless claims figure was unexpectedly low at 684,000 versus expectations for 730,000 and 781,000 the prior week. While this is just one week's numbers, it is the first time that claims have been under the pre-pandemic…

Political Economy

European coronavirus update and its implications

Edward Harrison Mar 23, 2021

I have been watching the third wave make its way across Europe and reading the European press to get a sense of how bad it is. And it definitely looks like another lost quarter for Europe. I really like how comprehensive the coverage in the…

Daily

Covid-19 waves, EM canaries, and large cap tech optionality

Edward Harrison Mar 22, 2021

As the new week begins, I have three subjects I am focused on. The first is the coronavirus, where the mutant-inspired infection wave I have expected is forming. The second is emerging markets, where the increase in the US dollar is…

Daily

On the Fed’s playing chicken with the bond vigilantes

Edward Harrison Mar 18, 2021

Yesterday the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee released a policy statement that it has decided to stay the course on accommodative monetary policy through zero rates and quantitative easing. It provided absolutely nothing in terms…

Daily

Short-covering in Treasuries and a third wave in Europe

Edward Harrison Mar 16, 2021

I expect to see more of the bear market in bonds in due course. Eventually, I think it's the sell off in Treasuries that will force the Fed's hand. But right now, that is a crowded trade. We've got some negative Covid-19 data out of Europe…

Daily

Three Market Narratives

Edward Harrison Mar 15, 2021

After the last week off, let's see if we can get back into the flow here. And my apologies for ghosting you. I was overcommitted last week against a backdrop where there was less to say. In the interim, though, I have seen three market…

Daily

The return of the reverse radical recovery

Edward Harrison Mar 5, 2021

Jobs day in the US in 2021 will be the same for me today for the third month running. It's all about the start and stop nature in the leisure and hospitality sectors due to the pandemic. Underneath those shifts, the reverse radical recovery…

Daily

The US economy firing on all cylinders? Hardly

Edward Harrison Mar 4, 2021

In the week ending February 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 6,000 from 730,000 to 736,000.…

Daily

Some forward-looking views on the economy and bonds

Edward Harrison Mar 3, 2021

I think we're close enough to the end of the Covid era to start talking more about what happens when this period is over. By that, I don't mean that COVID-19 is over as a major public health threat. I mean more that the period of time when…

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