Last year, I started off the newsletter with a list of ten surprises for 2012 which I reviewed last month. I apologize for not having a similar list of ten surprises for 2013 yet. I think it is a good exercise to go through to hone one’s thinking about the economic and investing landscape.
My list is loosely based off Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises that he has been doing at Blackstone and Morgan Stanley for almost the last thirty years. Wien defines his surprises as events to which investors assign 1-in-3 odds of happening but which he believes have a more than 50 percent likelihood of occurring in 2012.
Here is a preliminary list of the top eleven candidates for the list and links to the posts in which I tell you why:
- US markets have a major correction i.e. down 15% from the high. See “Predicting major correction in 2013 as contrary indicators are mostly bearish“
- Ireland’s government bonds do not outperform again. Greece outperforms this year. See: “Greece records its first primary budget surplus excluding interest in 2012“
- Germany avoids recession. See: “On Germany’s avoiding recession” and “Comments on the German model as German GDP contracts“
- Ireland goes to OMT. See “Ireland to liquidate Anglo Irish to cut government debt“, “On Ireland’s superior economic performance” and recent articles tagged “Ireland” and “OMT“
- Spain goes to OMT. See “On the need for Spain to formally apply for an OMT-style bailout“, “What’s happening in Spain?” and recent articles tagged “Spain” and “OMT“
- The US has a recession. See “The US fiscal standoff should mean recession in Q2“
- Japan outperforms all other developed economies. See “On Germany’s record trade surplus and increasing trade deficits in Japan“
- Yen falls below 100 yen to the dollar. See “How the Japanese can get their exchange rate down” and other recent articles tagged “Japan“
- Canada’s housing market bubble begins to pop. See “Problems in global housing markets” and “Full text: Moody’s downgrades Canadian banks“
- France’s housing market cracks. See “Problems in global housing markets” and “Negative credit accelerator from the fall in France’s housing market” and recent articles tagged “France“
- Apple earnings contract. See “Why earnings contractions are coming for Apple in 2013“
I will have a proper post soon with a final list too. Stay tuned.