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Fiscal timetable for US likely debt ceiling first, then spending cuts

My position since October 2009 has been that the United States could not hold off deficit hawks for more than three or four years. 2013 is the deadline for that prediction to be fulfilled and we are right on schedule with the fiscal cliff and the debt ceiling showdowns.

The latest news on timing is significant because it could mean recession. As I wrote earlier today in my post on the Trillion Dollar Coin, I expect the debt ceiling fight to spark political animosity and to harden positions in Congress over other issues. And to the degree any large fiscal fights happen after the debt ceiling fight, we should expect more austerity than is commonly anticipated. [Content protected for Gold members only]


Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College. Edward also writes a premium financial newsletter. Sign up here for a free trial.