Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)

Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here’s a brief version of the list. Like Wien, I think these are events most see as 1 in 3 but have a 50% or better likelihood of occurring.

  1. Greece sees writedowns
  2. Romney gets the nod in the US
  3. China has a hard landing
  4. India slows more than China
  5. Australia’s property boom ends
  6. European equities outperforms
  7. US GDP comes in below Byron Wien’s expected 3%
  8. German GDP slows dramatically
  9. Gold has its first off year
  10. The ECB provides more explicit backstops

Full post and reasoning at Credit Writedowns Pro with more discussion there to follow.


Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College. Edward also writes a premium financial newsletter. Sign up here for a free trial.