Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.
Ed, I reckon that Australia will see a housing induced crisis by years end for two reasons. Interest rates at the moment are still relatively low by historical standards and yet we’re seeing increased mortgage stress levels with each .25% rise and rates should be close to trend by years end – not good. The other factor is that given the mass amounts of data around, globally, flat or below par growth by years end will be the order of the day and the realisation that China can not support the global economy will take it’s toll on Australia. The classic sporting double! There’s too much talk about being out of the woods and missing the global recession, simply, we just haven’t had it yet.
Glen, I am definitely worried about Australia too – and to a lesser degree Canada. As you say, it seems that denial runs deep and that’s the origin of Minsky’s instability of stability. The longer we live in a stable, relatively crisis-free state, the more leverage and risk builds. And this seems to be what is happening in Australia right now.
Ed, I reckon that Australia will see a housing induced crisis by years end for two reasons. Interest rates at the moment are still relatively low by historical standards and yet we’re seeing increased mortgage stress levels with each .25% rise and rates should be close to trend by years end – not good. The other factor is that given the mass amounts of data around, globally, flat or below par growth by years end will be the order of the day and the realisation that China can not support the global economy will take it’s toll on Australia. The classic sporting double! There’s too much talk about being out of the woods and missing the global recession, simply, we just haven’t had it yet.
Glen, I am definitely worried about Australia too – and to a lesser degree Canada. As you say, it seems that denial runs deep and that’s the origin of Minsky’s instability of stability. The longer we live in a stable, relatively crisis-free state, the more leverage and risk builds. And this seems to be what is happening in Australia right now.
Good luck, down there.