You probably know that I am gearing up for some serious writedowns in Eastern Europe because I see these countries as having external imbalances which will have to be corrected as the economy softens. In previous posts, I had mentioned that there was considerable exposure to Eastern Europe in Austria, Sweden, Denmark and Germany in particular. Austria is the worst of the lot. Today, I happened upon an article and a quote which puts the Austrian exposure into context.
Internationally, Smick said export-dependent developing countries, and the western banks that financed their growth, are particularly vulnerable.
“If too many of these emerging markets go down, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) lacks the necessary resources to mount rescue operations,” writes Smick, author of the 2008 book The World Is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy.
“To put things in perspective, Austrian banks have emerging-market financial exposure exceeding $290 billion. Austria’s GDP is only $370 billion.”
Yves Smith tells me the word on the street is that Germany may be holding back on fiscal stimulus in anticipation of a need to bail the Austrians out when their banking system comes under fire. I have not heard these rumours, but, it does stand to reckon that some larger government entity is going to be left holding the bag here. The Austrians will not be able to get out of this alone.
Economic ‘bubbles have only begun to burst’ – Vancouver Sun