Tag: retail sales

Detailed analysis and thoughts on the Alibaba IPO

Detailed analysis and thoughts on the Alibaba IPO

Alibaba, the Chinese e-commerce company, is going public via an initial public offering underwritten by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, and Credit Suisse. Alibaba was founded 15 years ago in 1999 in a one-room apartment in Hangzhou. It is now controlled by a 28-member partnership and proclaims that it  will build a legacy which will last “at least 102 […]

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-03-14

US data have been better

European periphery market access continues to improve

Dollar weakness may be China-related

Gold continues to get safe haven bid

China’s slowing more likely to be abrupt

Ukraine has become a military issue; contagion will increase

A full-blown emerging markets crisis is now likely

Green shoots in the US?

Green shoots in the US?

By Marc Chandler US retail sales rose 0.3% in February, a little more than expected. The news was blunted by sharp downward revisions to the January series, leaving the level of retail sales lower and pointing to somewhat less personal consumption to drive GDP here in Q1. The take away is that as the weather returns to a greater semblance […]

Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14

Themes for today:

Commodities: soybean prices could fall due to increased supply. This would be troublesome for Argentina.
Emerging markets: Of the fragile five, India is looking better, Brazil is still a big concern.
Developed Markets: House price inflation makes France, the UK, Australia and Canada vulnerable to real economy shocks.
US: Consumers are only supporting 1-2% growth. Q1 will be weak. Inventory builds are still the big story.

Retail sales and jobless claims

Retail sales and jobless claims

Again, the income to support sales just doesn’t seem to be there, as the sub 3% federal deficit doesn’t seem to have been providing the spending needed to offset the demand leakages (unspent income). And squinting at the jobless claims chart, if anything, it seems to have bottomed and be nudging irregularly higher.

Stephen Roach: US consumers are still in a balance sheet recession

Stephen Roach: US consumers are still in a balance sheet recession

Former Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Stephen Roach isn’t buying the US recovery. The economist, now a Senior Fellow at Yale University, talked to Bloomberg Television’s “Surveillance” earlier today to discuss the US economy, as well as emerging markets, Apple’s stock repurchase and his new book “Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.”. Roach told Tom Keene: “the American consumer remains […]

Walbucks: Bitcoin for Walmart

Walbucks: Bitcoin for Walmart

This post is about three different topics, Bitcoin and e-Payments, the Minimum Wage, and consumer spending and Walmart. There has been a lot of discussion about all three and I believe I have an innovative way to attack all three issues that will satisfy most reasonable people. The idea is simply to for Walmart to conduct a de facto minimum wage increase of all of its minimum wage workers’ salary by giving them extra salary in e-payments usable only at Walmart and transferable securely via a payment algorithm similar to Bitcoin’s.

The deflationary forces of online shopping

The deflationary forces of online shopping

This past holiday sales season was weak for a number of retailers in the US. But, discounting was the culprit rather than poor demand by consumers. I see retail sales holding up but a shake out in retail is sure to come as the deflationary forces of internet price discovery put margin pressure on everyone.

Detailing some risks to the global economy

Detailing some risks to the global economy

Most economic analysts are in a bullish frame of mind regarding the outlook for 2014. I believe 2014 will be better than 2013. Nevertheless, there are risks to this optimism, both regarding the real economy and the valuation of shares. Below are some highlights on where some of the hidden risks lie.