I have spent some time this past weekend reading what investment manager Hugh Hendry has had to say about why he has turned bullish. And the clear takeaways are twofold. First, it is very difficult to ‘fight the Fed’ when it wants growth. Second, the reflexive pursuit of growth leads to liquidity driven markets and that’s bullish for shares in the short- and medium-term. Where this leads over the longer-term is another matter.
Tag: hedge funds
By Niels Jensen The Absolute Return Letter, December 2012 “It’s one thing to have an opinion on the macro, but something very different to act as if it’s correct.” -Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital Management It can be a frustrating, and rather futile, experience to be an economist. Financial markets do not always behave as if there is a connection between […]
I have been an observer of financial markets, and of those who operate within the markets, for almost 30 years. I have never before experienced investors paying more attention to career risk than they do at present. A preoccupation with career risk changes behavioural patterns. Decisions become more defensive, and sometimes less rational.
Greece and the IMF appear to be pushing for as much as a 75% loss on NPV basis, while the banks, many of whom have written down 50% of their Greek holdings, appear willing to accept a 60-65% hit on the NPV basis. Participating in the haircut damages the ECB. It is possible that the loss, even from the discounted levels it purchased the Greek bonds, would wipe out the ECB’s capital. Alternatively, as we have point out previously, if the ECB does not take a haircut, it undermines the effectiveness of its sovereign bond purchases. The more the ECB buys the greater the haircut the private sector ultimately faces.
BBC’s Hardtalk recently featured Kyle Bass, Founder of Hayman Capital, a hedge fund based in Texas to talk about global markets and the sovereign debt crisis.
This is an interview with Eclectica Asset Management’s Hugh Hendry from much earlier in the year. It is a wide-ranging interview about the global macro environment, comparisons to the 1920s, investing, money management and hedge funds.
Here’s Jim Chanos on the demonstrations on Wall Street which express the anti-bailout sentiments expressed by both the Tea Party and #OccupyWallStreet. Bill Gross, Vikram Pandit, John Paulson and Michael Bloomberg all chimed in too.
If you recall Global Macro Monitor’s post on Europe’s Bank Problem last week, the IMF chart showed very well how banks were struggling to wean themselves from short-term funding sources and increase tangible common equity. The Belgians had made Herculean strides in this effort. But it has not been enough.
This video clip has been making the rounds so I thought I should post it (without commentary). The line most people have focused on is the one I quoted in the post title. Feel free to comment.
What will the Europeans do here then? I am anticipating bailouts, liquidity injections and capital injections. But this is looking pretty dismal now so it is not clear if that will be enough.
The D-Process played out in greater initial force in the US private sector. Now Europe is playing catch-up, but more via the public sector due to the restrictions imposed by the Euro. Ray Dalio comments on how he sees this process proceding and how to invest in this environment.
Institutional investors have learned how to create and game self-fulfilling prophecy runs in various asset markets. (George Soros understood this and demonstrated its efficacy with his effort to break the pound in 1992.) Indeed, this is one of the “secrets” to manufacturing higher absolute returns if you are a hedge fund portfolio manager – namely, creating and managing such bandwagon effects. It is a plausible simple story with a self-fulfilling aspect to it.