Richard Bernstein asks a very good question in a wide-ranging interview with Bloomberg. Now that the so-called green shoots are dominating the news coverage and the S&P 500 is up a massive 34% from its March lows, one might think we are due for a pretty Robust V-shaped recovery. Is that what the future holds? Bernstein doesn’t think so. He […]
Tag: economic recovery
I am watching Bernanke at the congressional hearing. You can see his prepared testimony at CR here. But, the general take on what he is saying is that the economy has reached its worst rate of decline and should improve steadily until it actually recovers later this year. He also says that major impediments remain, commercial real estate being one. […]
For most of the last few years, I have been labeled a perma-bear, that is someone who looks at the situation from a reflexively skeptical glass half-empty bias. One only need peruse our archives to get that impression. In fact, that is hardly the case. Over the past few months, as the evidence of a potential bottoming has grown stronger, […]
I have done my part over the past few weeks to write that I thought jobless claims signaled the potential for recovery. I started the drumbeat in late March. Here are the posts:
This April 2009 post is holding up well and still describes my view on the economic situation in the United States. I am much more confident that the cyclical forces I described here are leading to a recovery. The question now has to do with sustainability and all of the systemic issues still at play. Because the Obama administration has moved into deficit hawk mode so quickly, I see a double-dip (i.e. a second downturn in late 2010 or 2011) as more likely than not. Even if we avoid a double-dip, the U.S. economy will still be at stall speed for some time to come and that means that any recovery is likely to be a short one (three-four years tops).
I believe we may be seeing the bottom here. Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman does as well. Here is what he has to say: Our baseline expectation is that the pace of contraction of the US economy probably peaked in the horrific fourth quarter of last year, which still appears subject to downward revisions. We expect a deep contraction […]
Today’s Globe & Mail does an excellent job of presenting the three different potential outcomes for the global economy, one optimistic, one pessimistic and a third somewhere in between. Below are the key snippets of their article reflecting each of the three outcomes. However, I highly recommend reading the full article which is linked below.
Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust is one of the few economists to have warned about the present economic malaise. So his analysis of present events carries weight. In making recommendations about our future economic path, Kasriel leans heavily on historic precedent regarding periods of deleveraging, one such period being the Great Depression. He draws some interesting conclusions.