Despite the grandiose title of this post, I intend to keep my comments brief. Having had a few days to digest the news without having to write, I come back somewhat more optimistic about the European economy. I wouldn’t call myself a bull but I see the global upswing continuing through 2013 and into 2014. Below are some notes on specifics.
Tag: economic recovery
We continue to identify four main macro issues shaping the investment climate: The tapering anticipation in the US; the stabilization of the Chinese economy; a cyclical recovery in Europe; and the long awaited Japanese purchases of foreign bonds.
Three articles in this Wednesday and Thursday’s Wall Street Journal highlighted that data point to a continued cyclical recovery despite a lot of doom and gloom from all sides. Let me post extracts from those articles I would like to highlight and make a few comments of my own.
In the links today, the biggest threads outside of the NSA scandal were on Greece and Europe. I believe the economy there is bottoming and I want to discuss some of the news flow. There was also a rate decision by the Japanese central bank that was met with disappointment. Let’s put this into context regarding the viability of Abenomics.
More and more the economic data coming out of the US seems to support continued recovery. The housing data certainly does. Consumer credit is increasing. And the Fed Flow of Funds data shows household balance sheets significantly repaired. Moreover, jobless claims continue to trend down. The missing link now is wage growth, which could well be on the horizon.
Europe is in recession right now, but the US is in a weak but fairly long-lived economic recovery. The difference in economic fortunes owes entirely to differing policy responses in both regions. In Europe, the economic paradigm has favoured austerity as a policy tool. And the result has been fiscal retrenchment met with varying levels of additional private retrenchment – no confidence fairies here. That is the reason for the recessions across Europe. In the US, the policy response has been varying degrees of fiscal and monetary stimulus. And the result has been a muted recovery in both output and employment. The question is whether either of these policy paths is sustainable. I say no on both counts and want to address. Here’s why.
US GDP contracted at a 0.1% annualised rate in Q4 of 2012 according to preliminary estimates announced by the US government earlier today. This contraction was well below consensus estimates and comes as a shock to most of the analyst community. Nonetheless, most macro analysts are not concerned because consumer spending in the US still seems to support continued recovery.
Economic data in the US is not trending down. It is stabilizing and perhaps trending marginally higher. We have seen a slew of data showing that the US data are outperforming expectations. The data for the housing market in the United States are particularly good. The latest on housing starts shows a climb of 82.5% from April 2009 lows when […]
Here’s a brief, late Friday post to follow up on the jobs number. If you look at recoveries from past recessions in the United States, what you usually see is a fall in the year-over-year unemployment rate as the economy gathers steam. And this fall gathers steam as the recovery picks up its pace. Clearly, this should make intuitive sense […]
By Sober Look The Citi Economic Surprise index was fairly accurate in pointing to a US slowdown in the first half of 2012. One therefore should not dismiss the recent reversal in the indicator’s trend. The index just went into the positive territory in spite of today’s poor employment report. Washington Post: – While today’s jobs data trailed forecasts, better-than- projected reports […]
This daily commentary is a bronze-level post. A lot of the data coming through in recent weeks shows the US recovery will continue for a bit. I caught two or three data points in the links today about this so I wanted to flag it for the daily commentary.
Late yesterday the US reported the biggest jump in consumer credit in a decade. It reinforces the signal of the gradual healing of the labor market and the resilience of the US consumer. The report increases the risk that the November personal consumption expenditures are revised higher from the initial 0.1% estimate.