Tomorrow, we all await the unemployment number with anticipation. In all likelihood, it is going to be a nasty number edging us ever closer to the 9.0% I once saw as a sort of upper range number for 2009. Meanwhile, jobless claims for the week ended March 28 are out. The reported numbers of 669,000 initial jobless claims and 5.7 […]
This comes via Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman and is an even-handed review of what just happened: As widely expected FASB modified fair value accounting rules. The key seems to be for assets for which there is not a market. The last traded price does not have to be used. Rather other methods, like discounted cash flows can be […]
Marshall Auerback here with a few thoughts about this economic cycle, external imbalances, fiscal stimulus, and current account deficits. This is not the Great Depression. We are going to have “muddle through” here precisely because we lack the courage to deficit spend on the magnitude we did in World War II. We are spending too much time fretting about “external […]
Before I provide the links I want to add some clarifying points about previous articles. Regarding the story about Larry Summers, Summers did not dismiss the employee in question. So, the post title is rather misleading. My apologies. Rather, Summers condoned an environment in which large bets on derivatives were permitted. Harvard has since not done well on those bets. […]
I am sure you realize by now that I believe Larry Summers is soft on derivatives, soft on regulation and soft on banking executives. He exemplifies the self-regulatory zeal of the previous boom. Given his indifference to responsible regulatory oversight of derivatives and other markets, the following account, now public does seem to fit a pattern. A former quantitative analyst […]
This comes via Angus Robertson over at Research Recap: Fitch Ratings forecasts that Emerging Europe (EE) will suffer its steepest fall in real GDP since the collapse of the Communist planned economic system in the early 1990s, reflecting the severity of the trade and financial shocks that have hit the region. However, the aggregate forecasts conceal a wide range in […]
The OCC’s Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities
for the Fourth Quarter 2008 is out. And derivatives exposure is way up. U.S. commercial banks now have a massive $200 trillion in derivatives exposure, which is 14x U.S. GDP.
Of course you know I think credit cards are going to produce a tsunami of writedowns, right? Things are looking more and more like that tsunami is right around the corner: Credit card writedowns soared to record levels in February, representing an all-time high in the 20-year history of the Moody’s Credit Card Index, as job losses mounted, the rating […]
The March 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business is out. The widely-followed figure of 36.3 for the purchasing manager’s index (PMI) shows a manufacturing sector contracting quickly, albeit at a slower pace. Last month, the PMI was 35.8 and it was 35.6 in January. So this marks the second consecutive month of gain in the figure. Nevertheless, with 50 as […]
This post was an April Fool’s joke. We all know this is not going to happen anytime soon.
Lessons from Japan’s failed fiscal stimulus – Vox Eu Obama’s Ersatz Capitalism – Joseph Stiglitz, NY Times hat tip Mark Thoma The Future of Investing: Evolution or Revolution? – Bill Gross NBER: Household and NFP Differences Are Cyclical – Barry Ritholtz Sacked workers occupy car factory – BBC News Emerging-Market Stocks Extend Best Monthly Rally in 16 Years – Bloomberg.com […]
I don’t want to beat a dead horse here, but the Chinese have been making a lot of muscular moves diplomatically. While shifts in balance of power often take decades, it is increasingly apparent that China is making a strategic move in that direction right now. We have been chronicling these moves here in a series of posts at Credit […]