Articles By: Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler

Marc Chandler joined Brown Brothers Harriman in October 2005 as the global head of currency strategy. Previously he was the chief currency strategist for HSBC Bank USA and Mellon Bank. In addition to frequently providing insight into the developments of the day to newspapers and news wires, Chandler's essays have been published in the Financial Times, Barron's, Euromoney, Corporate Finance, and Foreign Affairs. Marc appears often on business television and is a regular guest on CNBC and writes a blog called Marc to Market. Follow him on twitter.

Here are my most recent posts

Moral Hazard Taken Too Far

By Marc Chandler There is an element that links the terrible human tragedy in the Mediterranean and the ongoing Greek crisis.  It is Europe’s over-emphasis on moral hazard. Moral hazard is the idea that people will act irresponsibly if they do not have to bear the consequences.   No doubt, the concept offers valuable insight, up to a point.  The problem […]

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Greece: Irresistible Force Meets Immovable Object

By Marc Chandler Greece is expected to submit a more complete list of reforms in order to free up funds so the country can service its obligations.  Four times the Greek government has provided lists and four times the European group of finance minister rejected it. The IMF, which violated its own rules over the objections of its senior staff […]

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Spain may not be Greece, but it is Not the Opposite Either

The important point is that returning to growth after the crisis may not be sufficient to facilitate political stability. The damage to the middle class is serious and Rajoy does not appear to appreciate that. The economic cost of austerity is still being calculated. There will be a political price in some countries and Spain is one of them. It is not Greece, but it is not the poster child of success that the ordo-liberals in Berlin and Brussels would have it either.

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Is Greece’s Debt Odious?

There is a legal concept called “odious debts.” It can be traced back more than a century. The US helped create a precedent for it by denying Cuba’s responsibility for the debt incurred under Spanish colonial rule. The concept took on added significance in the post-colonial era more broadly. The issue here is the continuity of legal obligations from one regime to another especially as it pertains to the debt acquired.

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AIIB Prelude to SDR Decision

AIIB Prelude to SDR Decision

In what can only be seen an unexpected Chinese success, several US allies have agreed to participate in China and India’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. The frustration with the US on this issue is palpable. There is another issue at stake that head of China’s central bank Zhou Xiaochuan made clear at a forum yesterday. On a panel with the IMF’s Lagarde, Zhou pushed for the yuan to be included as a reserve asset and in the SDR basket.

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Russia, Oil, China and the Dollar

Russia, Oil, China and the Dollar

By Marc Chandler As the year winds down, a Gordian knot tying Russia, oil prices and China together is receiving a great deal of attention.  Let’s see if we can unravel some of the confusing twists and turns. We turn first to China’s offer of assistance to Russia.  The idea that Russia could activate its CNY150 bln (~$24 bln) currency […]

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QE will end, GDP growth expected at 3.0%, deflator at 1.4%

- This will be a busy week between stress tests and data releases, which markets have taken as positively
– Market expectations have settled down, and the Fed is widely expected to announce the finish of QE
– Economic news for Europe has been mixed so far, with M3 improving by German IFO disappointing
– The initial impact of the Ukrainian and Brazilian elections will be local

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Exaggerating the dollar’s demise as reserve currency

Exaggerating the dollar’s demise as reserve currency

By Marc Chandler The headline of the Financial Times today reads “Paris rails against the dollar’s dominance.”; It could have been written nearly any time in the past half century. After all it was a former French President Giscard d’Estaing, who as finance minister in the 1960s, complained about the “exorbitant privilege” that the US drew from the role of […]

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ECB Action: Just a Question of Time?

The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is “just a question of timing,” says Lagarde and “sooner was better than later”, chimed Blanchard, the chief economist. The market is less sanguine.

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On Europe’s move toward QE to prevent deflation

There is a battle within the European Central Bank. Some want to take stronger action. Others do not think it is necessary. It is not just a matter of counting up who is on what side of the issue. It is not simply about majority rules. The ECB seeks consensus. As is well appreciated, there are important political and legal obstacles to buying European sovereign bonds.

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Can the Jobs Data Give the Dollar Another Leg Up?

Can the Jobs Data Give the Dollar Another Leg Up?

The US dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains that were scored largely in response to Draghi’s revelation that QE and a negative deposit rate were discussed at the ECB meeting. The consensus expects that the US economy grew 200k jobs last month and that the unemployment rate ticked down to 6.6% from 6.7%. In addition, the ISM for the service sector saw a strong recovery, providing new information we did not have at the start of the week. The bottom-line here is that US economic growth picked up in late Q1.

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Calm before the Storm?

Calm before the Storm?

The US dollar is narrowly mixed, largely within its well-worn trading ranges against the major currencies with two exceptions. There have been several marginal developments over the 24 hours that are shaping the investment climate.

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