Though Vice Chairman, Janet Yellen, threw the bugs some QE red meat, Chairman Bernanke disappointed. We were expecting more positive QE speak from Mr. Bernanke, but not surprised by the sell-off.
Author: Global Macro Monitor
Note the peak in manufacturing jobs in June 1977, which represented 22 percent of all nonfarm payrolls, then, to fall to less than 9 percent of total employment today. It’s too earlier to claim victory with the current recovery in the manufacturing sector, but it is the the first positive slope since mid-1990′s.
Today we look at the jobs recovery by various industries.
“The chart also shows that the current economic situation is much weaker in several euro-area periphery countries. The recession in Greece has yet to end, and real GDP is now more than 17 percent below its prior peak. While a recovery recently appeared to be under way in Ireland, real growth is still 12 percent below peak. Portugal’s economic contraction during 2008-09 was less severe than that for the euro area. However, Portugal’s recovery faltered in mid-2010, and the economy has been contracting since then. Spain also experienced a milder recession than the euro area, but its recovery began later and has been progressing at a slower pace, leaving it around 4 percent below peak.”
Take a look at the long-term charts of crude oil and natural gas. The historical oil-to-gas price ratio had ranged from 6:1 to 10:1 before the economic crisis. Since one barrel of oil contains the energy equivalent of the 5.825 million BTU of natural gas, an implied BTU arbitrage kept this relationship in check.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for March increased to 53.4 from 52.4 in February, beating expectations of 53. It’s the 32nd consecutive month that the index has been at least 50.
Shiller says the shift toward renting and city living could mean “that we will never in our lifetime see a rebound in these prices in the suburbs.” Watch the video.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment. These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase.
Here’s a cool graphic from the EIA on what drives the price of a gallon of gasoline in January 2012. We paid $4.20 last night in California!
Great chart from the recently released Economic Report of the President. We suspect the Great Depression housing bust didn’t have the government props to soften the blow as we do today, which, therefore, on a relative basis, makes the current bust much worse. The prior conditions to the current bust must have been much worse than those before the Great Depression.
Note all components are above the 10-year Treasury yield.
The just announced 2GB — Second Greece Bailout — is a misnomer. We wouldn’t exactly call a deal where private creditors reschedule all maturing bond payments for the next ten or so years into a 30-year bullet with a 50+ percent effective haircut a bailout!