When the going gets tough, the tough turn into populists. Or at least that’s what we have seen time and again throughout history. In the 1930s, as the Great Depression was savaging the American Economy, people trembled in fear at the economic devastation. Members of Congress, sensing they needed to do something to address those fears, enacted the Smoot-Hawley Tariff […]
Author: Edward Harrison
Edward I am a former European credit markets and M&A guy who started out as a diplomat. — so I have some pretty diverse interests. The official line is that I am a banking and finance specialist at the economic consultancy Global Macro Advisors focusing on global economics and corporate strategy. Previously, I held positions at Lion Strategy Advisors, Deutsche […]
Earlier today in the news, it was revealed that our top man in the military in the Middle East, William J. Fallon has asked to retire and resign from his post (see story) This story may seem innocuous and of little to no consequence at a time of huge news coverage: Eliot Spitzer, Geraldine Ferraro, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Mississippi […]
This blog entry is an updated version of something I wrote way back in 2004. I wrote 90% of this 4 years ago when housing prices were much lower. The fact that I can re-publish this today, largely unchanged, demonstrates how the housing bubble has morphed into a giant of grotesque proportions. The global economy outperformed our wildest expectations on […]
We are already in recession by most accounts as I said on this blog yesterday. But, today I went back and looked at some of the historical employment data to see what the data said about Employment and recessions. What I was able to find out is that Employment is indeed a coincident to lagging indicator of recession.
We all know that income growth is non-existent and according to the ISM surveys, both the Manufacturing and the Service sector are in recession. Finally, according to a number of retailers, sales are definitely down. So, the long and short of all of this is that we are definitely in recession. And the downturn has just begun. The question is: how long and how deep?