Archive

Airbus and Boeing are signing economic suicide pacts with Beijing

US curve inversion worsens as the Fed acquiesces to market sentiment

Brexit as Europe's Lehman moment

UK now closer to crashing out of the EU with no deal than ever before

What the Fed needs to do this week to assuage the bond market

Deutsche Bank, QT, the Fed's outlook, the recent PMIs, and the Lyft IPO

Horrible continuing claims data speak to decelerating job growth

The Japanification of Europe

US economy, Brexit, and the global slowdown during an equities rally

People are finally realizing that the jobs picture has weakened

ECB's reversal, covenant lite vulnerability, and delinquent mortgages

Bullish ISM data and some thoughts on stall speed

The stall speed US economy and fireworks in Europe

MMT for Dummies

February

GDP growth surprise, jobless claims and the second referendum debate

May has admitted she could delay Article 50. What comes next?

Random musings about populism and work

The rebellion against no-deal Brexit and recession in Europe

Minotaurs, Baumol's Disease, Brexit and my bone to pick with Albert Edwards

Some thoughts on Lyft's IPO

"Trump unchained" moves on to border security and Europe

More on retail sales, plus Amazon, Facebook and the national emergency

How to interpret rising claims and the horrible retail sales figures

A few thoughts on the populist political environment in the US

IMF backs Fed rate pause citing rising global risks, Japan decelerates

German Social Democrats abandoning third way rhetoric

On speculation about the ECB restarting QE due to slowing growth

Jobless claims are now flashing red too

Some insights into (declining) US economic health

I have joined Real Vision

The Fed is reacting to slowing global growth, not asset markets

January

Powell's Mao Moment

How to think about deficit spending by a sovereign government

Can a slowing China tip a stall-speed US into recession?

China's slowdown and emerging consensus for global recession

Monopsony in the UK

China's 'Minsky Moment' and an inevitable second referendum

The European Union may not survive the euro

What Is GDP in China?

Sliding toward a no-deal Brexit and a US recession?

An update on Brexit as German GDP growth wanes

Three Economic Policy Debates

The border wall and the Fed's reaction function

The oil bull market, IPO freeze, weak UK data and preventing no-deal Brexit

Some comments on the shutdown, Fed policy and the markets

Brexit: Why Article 50 revocation is now on the table for Britain

British MPs have voted to stop a no-deal Brexit

Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 2 - Brexit

Some thoughts on today's 312,000 jobs added to the economy

Powell, Bernanke and Yellen offer a strong rebuke of Trump

Growth downshift warning as Apple's guidance downgrade trumps mixed data

Credit Writedowns 2019 Outlook, Part 1 - US Politics

2018

December 2018

More on the steepening yield curve and deteriorating credit conditions

What to make of the best one-day percentage gain for US stocks in over nine years

The Trump Presidency is collapsing

Fight the Fed

The Fed acts as Credit Writedowns predicted. Here's why and what to expect.

Will the Fed throw the market a bone tomorrow?

A No-deal Brexit is tantamount to Britain's unilateral repudiation of the Good Friday Agreement

More on the resiliency of the US economy

Wait until crisis for the dollar, expect 2019 curve inversion, plus other predictions

An update on Brexit after May wins confidence vote

Theresa May's saving grace is the ticking clock on Brexit

Handicapping potential outcomes in the Brexit saga

Cold War 2.0, a broken Germany and a US Federal Reserve at the crossroads

Six topics I am following which will impact economy and markets (part two)

Six topics I am following which will impact economy and markets (part one)

General Motors is proof that slashing wages isn’t the ticket to profitability

The global growth slowdown is accelerating

More on the US Treasury yield curve inversion and widening bond spreads

Updating the global economic outlook for the China-US trade war pause

November 2018

Tepper: The Myth of Capitalism - my review

The Fed minutes and concerns about the pace of rate hikes

Recapping Powell and reasons why the Fed might pause as oil falls below $50 a barrel

Powell's comments weren't that different from Clarida

Let's unpack Clarida's comments while we wait for Powell

Trump is making it harder for the Fed to ease

The credit cycle is now turning down. Here's the evidence and the vulnerability

The credit cycle is now turning down

Expect political trench warfare as the economy slows

Countdown to inversion: US Treasury curve flattening has resumed

Is Trump's goose cooked on the economy?

More on the meltdown in oil (and a cut in oil capex)

Predicting the political economy for the 2020 US presidential election

Confirming a second global growth slowdown as Trump tries to consolidate power

The bear market in crude

Back to the Fed

How far is Trump willing to go?

US midterms post-mortem: A divided congress for a divided America

As we head to the mid-terms, what about the economy?

A quick note about the bond market

The jobs number was great, but it's all about the Fed now

Forget about $100 oil and disregard the non-farm number too. Watch housing

More on domestic 'unilateralism'

Hanging on Apple's earnings as the stock market ticks up

October 2018

A quick note on how 'unilateralism' works domestically

On stagnation in Italy, GE's dividend, the weak yuan, and a rudderless Germany

How the Internet drives polarization

On the economics of climate change, the end of the housing ATM and the scalability of human intervention in tech

Trump the successful cultural warrior

Merkel will leave a vacuum that nationalism will fill

The flight to safety even includes Italian sovereign debt now, as US housing market feels Fed tightening

On the recent market selloff, tech earnings and privacy

Chinese innovation, Tesla's profitability, the migrant caravan and the market plunge

Nationalism vs populism vs thwarting democracy

Global bond markets are pointing to risk-off, particularly regarding Italy

European selloff highlights resumption of US treasury bear flattening

Using technology to phase out human workers

EU expansion to 27 members altered the EU radically

Greens have replaced the SPD in Germany and something Putin and Juncker appear to agree on

Italy is too big to fail

China's doubling down on command-style economic governance as growth wanes

The euro was always controversial: What Eurobarometers say about the EU's legitimacy (part two)

What Eurobarometers say about the EU's legitimacy (part one)

The disintegration of legitimacy in western democracies

Lyft subscription plan is the future of ride hailing

Trump's amoral stance on Saudi, Sears' potential liquidation and a bearish fund manager survey

Watch Congress on Saudi not Trump, and look at China as the key to climate change

The post-Kavanaugh midterm narrative is wrong

Key takeaways from yesterday's election in Bavaria

A quick note on the Sears bankruptcy

More on Trump's accomplishments and the gender divide in voting for him

$200 oil as a black swan

More on bank earnings, the threat to democracy and playing with authoritarian ideology

Bank earnings, rising mortgage rates, what strategists say about the selloff, and "dangerous undercurrents" in the global system

Why the ten-year's hitting 3.25% has spooked asset markets

100-year storm as market groups break below 50- and 200-day daily moving averages

Some thoughts on the impact of $100 oil on the US, Europe, Japan and EM

Asian firm confidence at 3-year low as Singapore and India drive wealth gap

An Italian banking crisis and mark-to-market rules

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