Why investors should beware tech’s strong fourth quarter

Since Cicso’s miss earlier this month, a lot of people have been talking about technology and capital investment. Cisco said its miss was more about government spending, but we should still ask whether capital spending in the private sector is going to deliver.

During the end of the tech bubble, channel stuffing became widespread. Is the same about to happen here again? Herb Greenberg says some serious stuffing could be happening and suggests analysts make enquiries to find out to what extent. From a macro perspective, this is significant because government stimulus is petering out while real wage increases still remain subdued. So we can’t expect this to be a consumer led recovery until we see more income growth. Seeing capex tick up, especially in tech, would be a good sign to that end.

(CNBC video below)



Edward Harrison is the founder of Credit Writedowns and a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty years of business experience. He is also a regular economic and financial commentator on BBC World News, CNBC Television, Business News Network, CBC, Fox Television and RT Television. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College. Edward also writes a premium financial newsletter. Sign up here for a free trial.