With the liquidity crisis surrounding the rollover of Greek debt subsiding, the probability of default for that country has plummeted from nearly even odds to just over one in three.
Last Week’s Numbers: 06 May 2010
Meanwhile, other state and national governments are showing continued stress. Venezuela tops the list with a CDS spread of 1049 and a risk of default now over 50%. Argentina and Pakistan are also now ahead of Greece which is now only the 4th most likely government in the world to default.
Most recent numbers: 11 May 2010
The usual suspects are on the list including Dubai, Ukraine and Latvia. The one thing to notice is that California has now cracked the top ten with a 20% default probability. For California muni bond holders, this number bears watching.
Source: CMA Sovereign Risk Monitor