22 responses

  1. LavrentiBeria
    11 November 2009

    An interesting bit of reasoning this business of the “gap”. I’ve long felt 12% unemployment was likely – and a Dow below previous lows for that matter – but here we’re given the mechanism. If there are, in fact, Republican political gains that emerge from the denial of the Obama/Summers/Geithner/Bernanke clique bought by financial interests at the expense of average Americans, you can count on the economic situation worstening still with no meaningful help for the unemployed at all. Its then that the people will have their most obvious opportunity to deal with the filth that govern us, top to bottom. There’s the silver lining in this cloud.

  2. kynikos
    11 November 2009

    Who isn’t pessimistic about the labor market? Everyone is pessimistic about the labor market.

  3. gruntled
    11 November 2009

    It seems to me that at some point someone will decree that the number will not exceed, let’s say, 10.5%, and we’ll never see anything higher. If the reality becomes too dark and gloomy, they can always project a different reality onto the masses.

  4. Anonymous
    12 November 2009

    I hope the unemployment rate goes to something like 760 THOUSAND percent, and all the people that used to play the market from overseas decide to find a new hobby, so Americans can resume their lives, getting jobs at new US companies that sell American products for Americans to buy, and kind of permanently put the kaibosh on the whole globalization business. Trillions of dollars have flowed overseas, it’s time for some countries(and people) to get weaned off the American promissory cash cow, and do for themselves instead.

    Unemployed? Who cares? Gives you plenty of time to reason out new ways to support yourself that don’t involve essentially being an indentured servant for the rest of your life. The same hands that run the machine at work can make dinner, plant vegetables, sharpen the pencil, and do a thousand other things that’ll probably end up helping you do for yourself and your family at the same level and standard of living you ‘enjoyed’ when you had a paycheck for others to harvest.

    Seriously. Let the job market permanently go to Hades. Eventually, they’ll have to lay off the people with the college degrees, too(college grads have an unemployment rate around 5%, ‘recession’ is relative, here), and then we’ll all be in the soup line. Maybe the grads can read to us from Chaucer, pass the time more quickly while waiting for our daily government ration of tomato soup….LOL

  5. Anonymous
    12 November 2009

    Expect 18%-20% nominal and 26%-28% comprehensive unemployment by the end of 2010. Next year approximately $2 trillion in commercial loans: hotels, shipping, tourism, airlines, as well as thousands of high end small businesses will default as consumers pull back on spending and deflation takes root. We’ve already seen over 120 bank failures. FGHA begging for more money, FDIC going broke, and real foreign investment drying up.

    We are in deep doodoo and the Administration will not tell us how deep to avoid panic in the streets. What the Administration must do is force the Federal Reserve to call a two year moratorium on debt service payments. The Congress should then allocate the $380 billion to job creation… CCC type programs. Over two years that amounts to $760 billion for a total of $1.5 trillion for economic development and employment generation.

  6. Julie
    12 November 2009

    We are so screwed as a country if we get GOP majorities in the house or senate in 2011. The GOP has no sense of accountability to the American people and no conscience when it comes to the pain and suffering their party inflicted on us.

  7. Anonymous
    12 November 2009

    Going through the numbers, there are quite a few interesting observations to be made:
    · Unemployment among full time workers (i.e those desirous of working full time or are on lay off from full time job) has crossed 11% mark to reach 11.1%

    · 156,000 additional people remained unemployed for more than 26 weeks, thereby making them ineligible for unemployment insurance

    · In last one year, an additional 3.2 million people have stopped receiving unemployment allowance

    · Of the total unemployed, currently 35.6% of them are not getting any allowance

    · The average duration of unemployment has gone upto 26.9%, the highest ever recorded

    · Unemployment among part-time workers dipped after a long time, implying employers are sceptical about recovery

    What this means is that recovery (or some acceptable form of it) will only be possible if the stimulus package continues. Withdrawal of stimulus will affect likely nascent recovery.

    For more of my views, please click on
    http://kunalsthoughts.weebly.com/1/post/2009/11/the-us-unemployment-whammy.html

  8. Monty Pelerin
    12 November 2009

    I think Rosenberg will be low in his estimates. He uses the current underemployed and the record-low work week statistic as the basis of his projection. Nothing wrong here. But, in addition to these effects, we have others that will likely come into play. First, the extension of unemployment benefits will produce upward pressure on the unemployment rate as certain people will use the extended benefits to either defer their search or to search harder and longer. Second, I don’t believe the impact of the tax and regulatory framework has been fully comprehended by business. Is healthcare going to pass? In what form? What will this cost per employee? When are taxes going up? Who will bear the brunt of them? These uncertainties have certainly frozen new hiring and investment, but when they become certainties, in whatever form, they will likely have add-on effects. Third, this economy is still going down. It has not yet bottomed.
    Monty Pelerin http://www.economicnoise.com

  9. Anonymous
    13 November 2009

    In a global economy, people purchase products that offer the best ‘value proposition’. That usually means ‘made elsewhere’. As such, our ‘standard of living’ will continue to erode, and our ‘relative standard of living’ will go down much faster. China seems to recognize these global realities and is making substantial investments in Africa and South America. Eventually, they want a better lifer for their citizens, who are willing to work for it, rather than simply being ‘entitled’ to it.

    Let’s face it. We’ve had a pretty ‘good ride’. But anyone who believes that we have a God given right to a better standard of living is seriously mistaken.

    Most average Americans will need to get used to smaller homes, fuel efficient vehicles, and fewer services. Hopefully, these same people will have the strength and courage to adapt, for the good of our posterity.

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