If Mervyn King is right regarding comments he made in his letter to the Chancellor Alistair Darling, then we should expect interest rates to head down after peaking sometime before year’s end. I tend to agree with him that the deflationary forces of a recession, housing bust and credit crunch will take their toll [...]

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UPDATE: The latest chart on U.S. consumer credit growth is here.
I have been focusing on debt as a primary contributor to the slump the U.S. is experiencing. We’ve seen skyrocketing Debt-to-GDP and Mortgage Debt. Now, I want to look at consumer credit. The Fed releases a monthly statement showing consumer [...]

The U.S. has been flashing red regarding recession for some time despite the naysayers.First, let me define recession because you usually hear that it’s two consecutive quarters of a decline in real GDP. Not exactly. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official arbiter of recessions says:
The NBER does not define a [...]

Today, as I write this blog entry, the U.S. Economy is in crisis. We have a massive consumer and mortgage debt problem. Gasoline and food prices are going through the roof. The U.S. dollar is plunging. People are losing their jobs and their homes. All of this is pretty nasty stuff. How do [...]