Credit Writedowns » Volcker

A New World Order

Edward Harrison — Fri, 19 Mar 2010 14:00:00 +0000

UPDATE: 19 MAR 2010: Given the debate on China and its currency peg, I thought this post from November 2008 would be relevant. It called for a new world order centered around a new monetary system. This idea has gained some currency as it is a chief aim of the Chinese going forward. One big

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The Wall Street Journal’s primer on The Volcker Rule

Edward Harrison — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 11:46:47 +0000

Paul Volcker is testifying before the Senate Banking Committee today on financial regulatory reform. Recently, the Obama introduced reform proposals inspired by Volcker and now being dubbed The Volcker Rule. The Wall Street Journal has done a good job over the past two weeks of outlining the internal politics, details and potential effects of the

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Did Brown’s win spark Obama’s war on Wall Street?

Edward Harrison — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 17:16:20 +0000

That’s the gist of yesterday’s post by James Pethoukoukis. The column says: A historic victory, really. It is hard to overstate just how “blue” a state Massachusetts is. Obama won it by 26 percentage points in 2008. Until now the state’s 10 U.S House members, two U.S. senators and all statewide officers were Democrats. The

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Obama backs Volcker regulatory plan in dramatic about face

Edward Harrison — Thu, 21 Jan 2010 14:04:05 +0000

Today President Obama is set to propose wide-ranging moves on bank regulation first proposed by his economic advisor Paul Volcker, the former Federal Reserve Chairman. Details of the proposal have yet to be released. However, the focus is expected to center on strict bank size limits and a limitation on proprietary trading at regulated banks

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Volcker: ‘I wasn’t persuasive enough’ for Obama to heed my economic advice

Edward Harrison — Sun, 03 Jan 2010 19:26:02 +0000

I don’t know quite what to make of the Paul Volcker interview published late last week in Business Week. In case you missed it, Business Week published a frank interview of former Federal Reserve Board chairman Paul Volcker with media giant Charlie Rose the day before Christmas Eve. In it, Volcker talked openly of his

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The year in review at Credit Writedowns: Crisis Solutions

Edward Harrison — Mon, 28 Dec 2009 17:41:03 +0000

As we head into the New Year, I am trying to look back at the last one with some semblance of a coherent interpretation of events that leads to a strategic vision of the future. I have already touched on stimulus, kleptocracy and crony capitalism as dominant themes for the year 2009. These posts have

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Financial News: 2009-12-16

Edward Harrison — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:22:51 +0000

Steven Pearlstein – Out from under TARP, banks are now free to fail again – washingtonpost.com France Matches U.K. With 50 Percent Bonus Tax – DealBook Blog – NYTimes.com FT.com – End bankruptcy priority for derivatives, repos and swaps Bernanke Stonewalls and Prevaricates in Response to Questions by Sen. Bunning – Yves Smith FT.com –

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Financial News: 2009-12-09 9 Dec 2009
Financial news from around the web: 2009-12-03 3 Dec 2009
Financial news from around the web: 2009-12-05 5 Dec 2009

News from around the web: 2009-12-12

Edward Harrison — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 16:29:20 +0000

A quick note for those subscribing via the free daily e-mail newsletter. I am looking signing up new readers via FeedBurner as the service has improved dramatically. If you are using FeedBlitz, please unsubscribe and subscribe instead to Feedburner at this link. There is no change in the weekly. Cheers. Edward Americans Owe Less, but

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Financial News: 2009-12-09 9 Dec 2009
News from around the web: 2009-08-26 26 Aug 2009

John Mauldin: Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery

Edward Harrison — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 13:52:55 +0000

Below is the latest from John Mauldin via his weekly newsletter. John expects a double dip recession as I do. Here he talks about what I call structurally high private sector unemployment i.e. unemployment in the private sector that cannot be diminished in the medium-term without some serious government action. As usual, I stress the

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Financial News: 2009-12-09

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:43:46 +0000

James Montiers Reading List – World Beta (Hat tip Tracy Alloway) Santa’s not so little helper: Today’s the busiest online shopping day of the year. So are they ready at the biggest grotto this side of Lapland? | Mail Online (Great pictures of Amazon’s warehouse.) FT Alphaville – Tracy Alloway – How do you say

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Non-financial news from around the web: 2009-12-03 3 Dec 2009
Financial news from around the web: 2009-12-03 3 Dec 2009
Non-financial news from around the web: 2009-12-04 4 Dec 2009

John Hussman on Reckless Myopia

Edward Harrison — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:56:19 +0000

Below is another great article from John Mauldin via his weekly newsletter, this time featuring John Hussman who is talking double dip and depression. My last post shows I am very concerned about this scenario – which I see as likely – and the parallels to 1930. At this point, I don’t see a lot

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The less optimistic view of Treasury’s handling of the crisis

Edward Harrison — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:01:05 +0000

The Obama Administration is captured. To understand why it has acted as it has, one doesn’t have to take the view that its efforts to save the banking industry were a deliberate attempt to line bankers’ pockets by transferring money from taxpayers to the banking industry. One need merely read the last post I wrote

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Former Citi Chairman in favor of re-imposing Glass-Steagall

Edward Harrison — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 23:09:36 +0000

This comes via the NYTimes: To the Editor: Re “Volcker’s Voice, Often Heeded, Fails to Sell a Bank Strategy” (front page, Oct. 21): As another older banker and one who has experienced both the pre- and post-Glass-Steagall world, I would agree with Paul A. Volcker (and also Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England)

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Links: 2009-10-21

Edward Harrison — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:04:36 +0000

Obama’s approval rating back to 50 – POLITICO.com This is tied for the lowest yet. Calomiris: Maybe He Slept Through 2008 — Seeking Alpha Debunkng certain economies of scale arguments for TBTF Volcker Has Obamas Ear, but Not on Overhaul of Banks – NYTimes.com Wells, U.S. Bancorp get big boost from mortgages | Reuters More

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Night Time Reading: 2009-10-05

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 00:55:00 +0000

I am going to double up on links today as I have a lot that I have found with more sill to come tomorrow morning. Enjoy this lot. Is the Swiss Health Care System a Good Model for US? – Gary Becker The Swiss health care system has several important properties that I (and

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Night Time Reading: 2009-09-08 8 Sep 2009

1987

Edward Harrison — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 17:03:24 +0000

In light of recent comments made by both living former Federal Reserve Chairmen, I thought it appropriate to look back 22 years to the succession from Volcker to Greenspan. What follows is a blurb from a New York Times article circa 1987, which highlights the appointment of Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve

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Obama caves to pressure on consumer financial protection

Edward Harrison — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 12:32:10 +0000

At issue here is the news that the Obama Administration dropped plans to force financial institutions to offer “plain vanilla” financial products that are simple enough for consumers to understand. My headline is editorial enough on this issue. So, rather than editorialize this latest announcement, I’ll quote from the press. The beginning of the end

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News from around the web: 2009-09-18

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 08:30:00 +0000

Bernstein: Best Value In Junky Names – CNBC.com It sounds like Bernstein is moving to the dark side. Obama Approval Stays Steady — Political Wire "A new Pew Research survey finds President Obama’s approval rate steady at 55% after several months of sliding. However, Obama has seen double-digit declines in positive views on several traits,

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Lehman’s collapse: The money fund “ice-nine wasn’t noticed… at first’”

Edward Harrison — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 17:57:01 +0000

Bloomberg News is writing a very worthy series of retrospective articles on the financial panic of September 2008. I profiled the first one on Monday. The next in the series came out yesterday and it makes for riveting and enlightening reading. Bloomberg News reporters Bob Ivry, Mark Pittman and Christine Harper talked to a large

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Stephen Roach: The case against Bernanke

Edward Harrison — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 19:21:13 +0000

While most economists have come out in favor of Barack Obama’s decision to re-appoint Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Roach has penned an Op-Ed in today’s Financial Times which highlights the case against Bernanke. It is must reading. Roach has three main points. Before the Lehman bankruptcy, Bernanke was an

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What does a double dip recession look like?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 02:55:46 +0000

On Friday, in reporting on second quarter GDP statistics, I wrote with some skepticism about the underlying consumer demand which would underpin a sustainable recovery. I do feel that the stage is set for recovery; Alan Greenspan thinks the economy has already recovered. However, I am worried that a double dip could result as much

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How globalisation led to universal banking in America

Edward Harrison — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 13:59:27 +0000

Last week, I followed up Yves Smith’s excellent post on “Why Big Capital Markets Players Are Unmanageable” with “More on why big capital markets players are unmanageable.” I would like to extend the discussion beyond the U.S. border into a look at how the universal banking model abroad encroached on the U.S. banking system and

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Make Sure You Get This One Right

Niels Jensen — Sun, 05 Jul 2009 01:49:49 +0000

The Absolute Return Letter, July 2009 “You can’t beat deflation in a credit-based system.”-Robert Prechter The great debate As investors we are faced with the consequences of our decisions every single day; however, as my old mentor at Goldman Sachs frequently reminded me, in your life time, you won’t have to get more than a

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Links: 2009-06-25

Edward Harrison — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 16:52:44 +0000

What I was afraid of – Paul Krugman As I also predicted, Obama’s stimulus package is now looking inadequate. Volcker Gets Less Than He Wants in Curbing Wall Street Excesses – Bloomberg The title says everything, doesn’t it? Our Crisis of Regulation – Richard Posner This op-ed is spot on in saying that the Obama

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Links: 2009-02-20 20 Feb 2009
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Links: 2009-06-19

Edward Harrison — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 04:41:00 +0000

After Pilot Dies, Jet Lands Safely in Newark – NY Times EU sets basis for finance reform – BBC News "EU ministers have agreed in principle on a framework for enhanced oversight of the financial sector, with the UK winning key concessions to the plans." When it comes to global banks, size matters – Gillian

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Is 2009 tracking a 1930 Great Depression scenario?

Edward Harrison — Mon, 15 Jun 2009 03:14:19 +0000

With more and more major economists predicting recovery sometime later this year, many have forgotten that downside risks remain. Berner, Roubini, Volcker, Krugman and Bernanke have all come out essentially saying they would not be surprised to see a ‘technical’ recovery at some point later this year. Robert Gordon has gone as far as to

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Links: 2009-06-12

Edward Harrison — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 04:08:47 +0000

Letterman Defends Palin Jokes – Political Wire The jokes were over the top really. But Palin is obviously pandering to a certain segment of the population in her response here. Some of the routine was genuinely funny, but, on the whole, it was a bit cringe-worthy. Two Ways to Deleverage an Economy by Bill Bonner

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Ken Lewis points the finger at Bernanke and Paulson

Edward Harrison — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 17:02:57 +0000

The drama at Bank of America continues with Ken Lewis testifying before Congress today. Most of the events surround claims by Lewis that he was coerced into doing the Merrill deal by Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke. I chronicled these events when they were made public back in April. BofA CEO confirms government coerced him

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Goldman connection at NY Fed “doesn’t pass the smell test”

Edward Harrison — Mon, 04 May 2009 14:33:51 +0000

Kate Kelly and Jon Hilsenrath have a story on the front of the Wall Street Journal today demonstrating the real problems with the revolving door between Wall Street and the regulators. The essence of the story is this: new York Fed Chairman Stephen Friedman is a director at Goldman Sachs, a company for which he

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Russia to re-arm: Obama’s first test 17 Mar 2009

Links: 2009-04-20

Edward Harrison — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 04:00:57 +0000

Willem Buiter’s Maverecon – Remembering Eddie George Willem Buiter recounts some personal tales from the late Bank of Egland Governor’s life. Fujitsu’s Self-Desctructing USB Drive for Leak-Proof Secrets » My Digital Life This is some serious James Bond technology, mate! Heavyweights Kohn,Volcker Spar Over Inflation Goal – WSJ.com By setting 2% as an inflation objective,

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Obama sacks Geithner and Summers, calls for change

Edward Harrison — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 13:24:55 +0000

This post was an April Fool's joke. We all know this is not going to happen anytime soon

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Geithner and Summers consolidate power 16 Feb 2009
Video: Geithner calls for single agency to oversee systemic risks 26 Mar 2009
Obama White House: Add Larry Summers and Robert Gibbs 22 Nov 2008

Links: 2009-03-27

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 12:31:21 +0000

Commerzbank reveals toxic assets – BBC News Obviously, there are more writedowns to come. What does this say about what’s on Deutsche’s books? or UBS? MGM Mirage’s City Center Hires Bankruptcy Counsel – Deal Book Fear and Greed – Mark Thoma this is a hilarious post and a must-read Europe fetches the monetary helicopters, at

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Links: 2009-03-25

Edward Harrison — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 13:00:12 +0000

Here are the main links. A ton more can be found in the news feed (also available via RSS). Enjoy. Dear A.I.G., I Quit – Paul Kedrosky The devalued Prime Minister of a devalued Government – Alice Cook This video is good. U.S. wrong to blame China for trade imbalance: Stephen Roach – Xinhua Buffett’s

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Where’s Volcker?

Marshall Auerback — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 16:35:11 +0000

Marshall Auerback here.

Unlike Ed, I like to call a spade a spade regarding the Obama Administration's economic gurus. The more they screw up, the greater the number and depth of the crises, the greater the responsibility/ power Obama gives them. I wonder what he'd do if they ever succeeded? You can't assume independent probabilities when you have the same actors making policy (and not learning from their past mistakes).

More broadly, you can't assume independent probabilities even with different policy makers if they share the same theoretical priors and methodological blinders. It is very worrying is that neither Geithner, nor Summers display any obvious remorse or sense that they made contributed to the current mess, thereby making it impossible to believe that they actually understand how to get us out of it. It reminds one of George W. Bush's reluctance ever to acknowledge an error (and look where that got us).

Geithner and Summers are far more likely to doom Obama's Presidency. There is no hope for Obama if he continues to embrace neo-Rubinism as his governing creed

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Links: 2009-02-23

Edward Harrison — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 15:26:46 +0000

Americans Would Be Lucky to Mimic 1990s Japan: William Pesek – Bloomberg.com Will Germany deliver on the Faustian bargain that created monetary union? – Telegraph U.S. economy seen starting recovery in second half of ’09: poll | Reuters Video: Gold May Reach $3,500 – Christopher Wood, Bloomberg.com U.S. Bubble Collapse to Be Worse Than Japan’s,

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