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Since so many economists are signing up to the second-half recovery meme (Berner, Gordon, Krugman, Bernanke), I am going to ask you whether you believe them or not.
What say ye?
(If you can’t read the above it is a poll asking you when we are likely to see recession end in the U.S.)

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The payroll data this morning were pretty good given the job losses came in nearly 200,000 less than expected.  But further digging suggests the number is not nearly as bullish when parsing the data.  Below are a few data points.
ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY

BULLISH: The headline jobs number of a 345,000 loss comes from the establishment survey and [...]

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Only 345,000 jobs lost. This is a hugely bullish report despite the headine number.  Markets are already reacting.  Bonds lower (ten-year is getting killed, now near 3.90%), stocks higher.
Here is what the Department of Labor had to say about the numbers:
Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May, about half the average monthly decline for [...]

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The number of persons filing an initial claim for unemployment insurance in the week just ended May 30 declined to 621,000 from 625,000 the prior week.  In addition, the number of persons still receiving unemployment insurance dropped to 6.735 million.  Both of these figures are seasonally-adjusted.
With initial claims still over 600,000 and continuing jobless claims [...]

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As you can probably tell from previous posts, I like he Currency Strategy Team at Brown Brothers Harriman.  I do not always agree with them – I am generally dollar bearish, whereas they are not – but I do like their analysis.  Marc Chandler and his team are out with a fairly bullish note on [...]

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The Institute for Supply Management released its monthly manufacturing index.  The data shows that the manufacturing sector is still contracting with the headline number rising to 42.8 in May, up from 40.1 in April. This number was ahead of analyst expectations of 42 flat.  50 represents the dividing line between a contracting manufacturing sector and [...]

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Below is the opening text to the U.S. government’s press release on the revised GDP numbers from the last quarter.  I have highlighted the most relevant parts in bold.  Overall, these revisions are not significant.  The main change I have seen is that inventories were not worked of as robustly in the original estimate – [...]

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If you thought jobless claims would fall off rapidly after a peak was made, you were mistaken because we seem to be in a holding pattern above 600,000.  The weekly report for unemployment insurance claims in the U.S. showed 623,000 filing a claim, with a record 6.8 million people still on unemployment insurance.  Now, mind [...]

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If you thought house prices were about to show some price gains, think again.  The Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March 2009 was released this morning and it paints a fairly grim picture.  The Composite-10 index shows an18.6% decline in prices over the last year, while the Composite-20 registered a 18.7% drop in that time.  [...]

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You have probably seen stocks down today.  The dow is off nearly 200 points and the Nasda is down 50.  But, everything American is getting whacked today. The U.S. dollar, stocks, and bonds.  Look at the chart on Treasurys here – especially the long end.

Something is happening in terms of how investors see the risk [...]