I tend to think so. Yesterday, Ben Bernanke made what some media outlets are calling hawkish statements.  This, combined with heavy currency intervention by Asian central banks, helped to strengthen the U.S. dollar. However one must ask if there is anything fundamental about these moves.
Just a few days ago, we got a sensational article via [...]

But, everywhere I look, everybody is saying it is.
I would like to be true to the data and not just take the government’s seasonally-adjusted numbers at face value.
Judge for yourself. Here’s the data:
This is what everyone is focused on – the seasonally-adjusted data. The part in red shows consumer credit down $12 billion.
 

But, what [...]

Jobless claims were reported as 521,000 on a seasonally-adjusted (SA) basis for the week ended October 3. This is the lowest reported figure for initial claims since January 3. The data came in lower than expectations and was matched by a drop in continuing claims to 6.04 million.
While both numbers are still high by [...]

The Federal Reserve has just released the most recent data on consumer credit. The data show outstanding consumer credit falling to $2.47 trillion in August from a December 2008 peak of $2.59 trillion – on a non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) basis. That is down 4.4% from the year ago period, continuing the acceleration of the year-on-year [...]

In July, I blogged on an interesting take on how employment affects equity returns during cyclical recoveries by Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt. Their thesis was that a recovery in which employment lags the overall upturn significantly is bearish for stocks. Since then, employment has indeed lagged other economic indicators.  Witness the most recent employment [...]

The September 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business showed the manufacturing sector and economy expanding.  But no matter, the markets wanted more. Equities sold off in a major way today. We’re talking over 200 points on the Dow and 65 points on the Nasdaq. On the other hand, Treasuries rallied and the yield on the [...]

Today’s jobless claims report should dispel the notion that the labor market in the United States is getting significantly better.  Initial jobless claims rose again to 551,000 from 534,000 the week prior.  The 4-week average is still an exceedingly high 548,000 and continuing claims are over 6 million  (All figures are seasonally-adjusted. Chart is below).

 
The [...]

The most recent data from the widely-followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices was made available today. These data from July show house prices in the U.S. increasing for the third month in a row, suggesting that house prices have stabilized. Moreover, the trend was broad-based with only Seattle and Las Vegas showing house price declines in [...]

The latest jobless claims data is in, with initial claims registering 530,000 and continuing claims coming in at 6.1 million.  These figures are well off the business cycle highs of a few months ago but still quite elevated. 
While the as-reported seasonally adjusted initial claims numbers are in the 500s, the actual initial claims have [...]

The jobless claims numbers have been telling us the same thing for weeks now, namely that the employment market is still weak but that layoffs are gradually slowing.
But,  the unadjusted number of initial claims dropped 59k last week to 407k.  I suspect this was due to a late Labor Day holiday in the States. Nevertheless, [...]