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Friday’s Thoughts and Seven Investment Themes

Marc Chandler — Fri, 03 Feb 2012 12:41:28 +0000

First, the trajectory of monetary policy in the US, Europe, China and Japan is in a more accommodative direction. Second, the underlying economies are showing preliminary signs of stabilizing. Third, the combination of easing monetary conditions and economic stabilization has boost demand for higher risk assets. In addition to major equity markets, emerging markets off to a strong start. Funds that exited the emerging markets in Q4 11 return. This has helped fueled currency and asset (bonds and stocks) appreciation

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Short Note on ISM Manufacturing Survey

Marc Chandler — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 14:50:38 +0000

The Institute for Supply Management reports its January manufacturing survey on February 1. The Bloomberg consensus expects a small increase to 54.5 from

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Stephen Roach on US, the Fed, China, and Europe

Edward Harrison — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 15:00:02 +0000

Stephen Roach says the Fed is going all in in support of QE and I agree. But what else are they going to do? Look at Europe, for example. The ECB there has a hydra-headed problem with sovereigns and banks on the brink of insolvency and they too have expanded the balance sheet like mad. China faces many of the same challenges with excess credit growth and fragile financial firms in the face of asset price deflation

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Chart of the Day: Developed economies’ debt levels by sector

Edward Harrison — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 14:00:41 +0000

This is a great chart below via the Wall Street Journal. It shows the total debt to GDP ratios for the largest developed economies in the world broken down into four sectors: households, non-financial corporations, financial institutions and government

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Gasoline Consumption Tanks in 2011

Global Macro Monitor — Fri, 13 Jan 2012 21:00:00 +0000

A chart of gasoline consumption and oil prices for the years 2000-

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Jobless claims jump may be seasonality

Edward Harrison — Thu, 12 Jan 2012 13:47:09 +0000

I thought I would flag this for paid members. The jobless claims data for the last week came out and it jumped fairly significantly from 375,000 to 399,000. It had been in the 375,000 range for a number of weeks prior

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Where are the safe havens?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 22:00:54 +0000

My latest post at Credit Writedowns Pro on protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis is now up. I outlined eight principal investing risks that I see for for 2012 and strategies to avoid those risks. At the same time, the thought you should have in the back of your head is that these are just the known unknowns. But that there are unknown unknowns which create so-called Knightean Uncertainty and make this a dangerous investing climate

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Mosler: I advocate tax relief and jobs, but forecast muddle through at best

Guest Author — Tue, 10 Jan 2012 18:00:30 +0000

Warren Mosler proposes a full FICA suspension, a $150 billion one time distribution to the states and an $8/hr federally funded transition job for anyone willing and able to work. However he believes these proposals will likely not be followed and predicts muddle through at best as a result

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Everyone is talking seasonality

Edward Harrison — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 14:15:58 +0000

Here is something to flag; there has been a lot of chatter amongst economic pundits about the seasonality effect on recent data. Those with a sceptical view have been saying that the upside surprise in the Friday jobs data in particular is the result of seasonal factors. Here are two examples

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The fireworks will start with Spain or Italy

Edward Harrison — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 22:30:50 +0000

Here's what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I'm not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data surge to the upside: housing, employment, manufacturing, all of these numbers have been better of late

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The expansionary fiscal contraction bust

Edward Harrison — Sun, 08 Jan 2012 21:15:25 +0000

If you argue that austerity works in cutting deficits over the longer-term but the short-term pain is worth it, that's a different argument than the one Republicans are making - and one not likely to get one elected, which is why they're not making it

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Beyond Jobs

Marc Chandler — Fri, 06 Jan 2012 12:30:54 +0000

The US jobs report is the main economic release today. In recent months, better than expected employment reports have spurred risk on trading and this has been dollar negative. Given the ADP report, despite the December skew in that time series, market expectations appear to have crept higher and it will take a stronger than expected number of give the dollar much of a lift. However, with Spanish and Italian bond auctions next week, the extent of a relief rally in the euro may be constrained

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A Tale of Two Markets

Global Macro Monitor — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 07:13:05 +0000

The Shanghai has turned down this evening after opening up and looks to continue the downtrend. That is one ugly chart. Meanwhile, the S&P500 looks like it really wants to resolve its wedge formation to the upside. After a year of head fakes, bull and bear traps, traders may have lost a little trust in the charts, however. A good employment number on Friday may provide a nice catalyst for some resolution

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America: What to Do with North Korea?

John Lounsbury — Mon, 26 Dec 2011 06:19:29 +0000

North Korea’s dear leader, Kim II, died a few days ago. His 3rd son is now in charge, as Kim III, Kim Jong Un (pictured). There is no better time to talk about North Korea than now, as evidenced by some timely expert opinions. So it’s time for me to chip in my two cents. I will briefly but succinctly answer five pertinent questions as follows

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Chart of the Day: U.S. Real Earnings through November 2011

Global Macro Monitor — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 14:00:04 +0000

Only three positive months in the last year. Lots of pain out there. Be charitable this holiday season, our friends. The return is tremendous

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U.S. Exposure to Europe – Unknowns Unknowns

Frederick Sheehan — Fri, 16 Dec 2011 02:12:51 +0000

As Eurocrats dissemble, ratios that quantify U.S. financial system exposure to European insolvency are dated, even as they are published

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Stephen Roach on the IMF bailout, Chinese banks and US consumers

Edward Harrison — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 02:17:42 +0000

Here’s a good all-encompassing Bloomberg TV video with Morgan Stanley’s Stephen Roach from Friday. He is not impressed with the IMF plans that the Europeans are working on, calling the numbers “chump change”. Roach also talks about the US and Chinese economies as well. The video is below followed by the copy from Bloomberg

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Weekend Developments and Their Significance Going Forward

Marc Chandler — Mon, 28 Nov 2011 00:11:02 +0000

There have been several important developments over the weekend which are likely to support the euro at the start of the week, after falling for the past four consecutive weeks and recording a 7-week low before the weekend. However, I continue to expect corrective gains in the euro will be short-lived and subject to headline risks. I still think that the $1.29 year end target for the euro is reasonable

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PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian: US recession odds are 50%

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 19:42:25 +0000

Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Chief Executive Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian told Bloomberg TV’s Betty Liu and Dominic Chu this morning that U.S. economic conditions are “terrifying” as the nation struggles to recover from recession. El-Erian also said the odds of the U.S. returning to recession are as high as 50%

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News Links: Downgrade watch begins as debt panel concedes defeat

Edward Harrison — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 14:30:54 +0000

Downgrade watch begins as debt panel concedes defeat – The Hill’s On The Money Credit rating agencies reiterated Monday that the U.S. is at risk of a downgrade following the announcement that the supercommittee has failed. Standard & Poor’s warned lawmakers not to try and roll back the $1.2 trillion in automatic cuts set to

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Dollar Softer Amid Consolidation

Marc Chandler — Tue, 22 Nov 2011 12:30:58 +0000

The US dollar is trading with a softer bias in what largely appears to be a consolidation. The euro held support near $1.34, sterling near $1.56 and Aussie near $0.9800. The news stream is light and corrective forces are seen in equities, which are mostly higher, and bond markets, which are mostly lower. Emerging market currencies are also generally firmer

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National Solvency and the Special Case of the US Dollar

Randall Wray — Mon, 21 Nov 2011 15:12:57 +0000

The US can run budget deficits that help to fuel current account deficits without worry about government or national insolvency precisely because the rest of the world wants Dollars. But surely that cannot be true of any other nation. Today, the US Dollar is the international reserve currency—making the US special. Isn’t the US special? Let us examine this argument

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Chart of the day: Definitive guide to the European debt web

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Nov 2011 13:08:15 +0000

The BBC has a terrific chart tool that gives you a good feel for exactly how much the sovereign debtors in each of the European countries owes and to which other countries. The great thing about this chart is that it also shows you the debt flows outside of the European periphery i.e. for France and Germany, as well as for Japan, the US and Britain in both directions

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Regulatory handicapping: the CFTC edition

Guest Author — Wed, 16 Nov 2011 17:15:00 +0000

And just two days after I reported on the starve-the-beast strategy that’s forcing the SEC to pursue Mickey-Mouse settlements with the big banks, we learn of plans to handicap the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission in a similar fashion

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60 Minutes: Congressional Insider Trading

Global Macro Monitor — Tue, 15 Nov 2011 00:00:15 +0000

In case you missed it last night here is one that is sure to get your feathers up. It’s about time they Occupy Congress

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Key data to focus on in the week ahead

Marc Chandler — Mon, 14 Nov 2011 14:20:51 +0000

Economic data has been of tertiary concern to the market recently, overwhelmed by the drama in Europe. Given that the drama may die down, with new governments in Greece and Italy, the economic data may become somewhat more important

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Downgrading the US in China

Edward Harrison — Sun, 13 Nov 2011 15:00:00 +0000

This video is about the Chinese view of America’s budget battles. The US congress has until November 23rd to figure out on how to reduce its public debt. If it doesn’t, eventually mandatory budget cuts will go into place. As a result, Guan Jianzhong, the head of China's only independent credit rating agency, has warned Dagong Credit might have to downgrade the US again

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Global Macro Monitor — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 20:00:06 +0000

A breakdown of Friday's numbers with net loss and gain by key industry

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On the CDS market, the Greek referendum and US banks’ selling insurance

Marc Chandler — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 14:00:22 +0000

There is much truth to the generalization that European banks took on direct exposure to European sovereigns through the bond market, while top banks took exposure through selling insurance, primarily CDS, on the sovereigns. The latest BIS data suggest that in H1 2011, US banks increased their CDS sales by almost $81 bln to $518 bln. Two thirds are tied Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain. Five US banks count for more than 90% of the CDS exposure

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Quantitative Easing!!!

Guest Author — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 14:46:29 +0000

The BoJ announced today that it will expand its asset purchase programme by JPY5trn (USD66bn), with all the purchases being directed at JGB's. Add that to the GBP75bn (USD120bn) by the BoE, CHF50bn (USD57bn) by the SNB and the EUR341bn (USD477bn) expansion of the ECB balance sheet since the end of June, and it collectively adds up to USD720bn. Clearly this explains the market rally from the low

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BEA Adjusts Second Quarter GDP Growth Rate Upward

Guest Author — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 18:45:11 +0000

The public has been seeing their (per-capita) "slice of the pie" contract now for six months, and no amount of well spun "sluggish growth" can alter their view of a shrinking reality

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US Durable Goods Orders: Another Point for a Good Q3 GDP

Marc Chandler — Wed, 28 Sep 2011 14:48:14 +0000

Today's durable goods orders data lends credence to our projection of fairly robust Q3 US GDP after the dismal 0.8% expansion in H1. The durable goods report is the third important piece of data that should encourage economists to look for something close to what is regarded as trend growth in the US (2.5%-3.0%). The sharp rise in July personal consumption expenditures and the smaller real trade deficit were the other two piece

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Additional US dollar liquidity-providing operations over year-end

Guest Author — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 15:00:43 +0000

A statement by the Bank of England on market liquidity to be provided in co-ordination with other major international central banks

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France: wealthiest ask government for special tax on the super-rich

Edward Harrison — Wed, 24 Aug 2011 12:27:32 +0000

This is a temporary tax proposal to demonstrate solidarity in tough times. It reminds me of the solidarity tax Germans paid to deal with their reunification

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France: wealthiest ask government for special tax on the super-rich