Argentina Reelects Fernandez, Unorthodox Policies And Peso Weakness To Continue

Fernandez will try to maintain the unorthodox mix of policies for as long as she can, and has shown little willingness to more towards orthodoxy during her first term. Troubles will come both internally and externally, with the growing fear that the exchange rate will bear the brunt of adjustment in the coming months

China’s Dwindling Trade Surplus Signals Weak World Economy

The Chinese trade surplus has dwindled. But pressure to revalue the Yuan remains. Video below

China Notes from the Yum! Brands Earnings Call

Today’s Yum! Brands’ earnings conference call was dominated by China. Management talked a lot about commodity inflation running around 8 percent and 20% labor inflation, which they do not yet see abating. This doesn’t square with the August official inflation rate of 6.2 percent. A China hard landing scenario is now on traders’ radar and needs to be closely monitored. The stock closed down 2.7 percent

Chart of the day: Largest German trade partners

Since I did the numbers for the US, I thought I would do the numbers for Germany too. Below are the bilateral trade figures for Germany in 2010, first ranked by deficit with country and then by surplus with country. Germany has a deficit with 73 countries and a surplus with 147 countries. The largest deficit by far is with China at $23 billion, followed by Norway, Ireland and Japan. The largest surpluses are with France, the UK, the US and Austria

BRICs to the rescue

Turning to foreign sources of capital will only aggravate the problem from which Europe already suffers. Even assuming that developing countries are willing to take on risks that Europeans find prohibitive, their help will not improve prospects for Europe. On the contrary, it will hurt growth prospects and make the ultimate resolution of the debt crisis more difficult than ever. BRICs should be exporting more demand, not more capital.

It is important that the desperate short-term funding needs of certain governments do not lead to an overall worse outcome for Europe. If Europeans do not want to fund credit-impaired European governments, they should not ask foreigners to do so. Slower growth and foreign debt will not help resolve the problem of insolvency

Chart of the day: Largest US trade partners

Below is the list of the largest trade partners of the United States as compiled by the US Census Bureau. The United States has a bilateral trade deficit with 12 of the 15. So I have ranked them according to trade deficit, with China in first place by a mile. Mexico is actually second, Japan and Germany, third and fourth respectively. The list also includes oil exporters like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, but the lion’s share of the US trade deficit is in goods and services

China currency bill is about US politics, not trade

Below is a video of my appearance on RT International last night discussing the recent bill to authorise sanctions against the Chinese for currency manipulation. I see this bill as all about the politics and little about the economics

China Bill: Huff, Puff and Bluff

US national elections are 13 months away and not coincidentally, the Congress is looking at a new measures to encourage China to re-value the yuan. While there is little doubt that the yuan in under-valued, though reasonable people may differ on the magnitude, politics more than economics appears to be the driving force

Ireland: Is austerity enough or will we see haircuts?

It is high time politicians in Berlin to started to recognise that fiscal austerity is not the be all and end all of the policy issues they now face. Ireland is applying fiscal austerity, but this alone may well not be enough. A better distribution of the pain needs to be found. As the IMF itself notes in its latest staff report: ”there is a strong sense that burden-sharing between taxpayers and creditors for the cost of supporting the banks has been unfair”

UBS: Euro break-up – the consequences

The following is excerpted from today’s UBS research note by Stephane Deo, Paul Donovan and Larry Hatheway on the consequences of a euro break-up. The full note is embedded below

Why Made in China Costs More in China

Chinese goods cost more in China because of currency, taxes, transportation,logistics and inflation. The Chinese get the jobs, while Americans get the consumer products; The Chinese government gets the dollar, but the U.S government gets to spend the dollar! The Chinese like to say: the Americans get a better deal!

Brazil Surprise Rate Cut To Weigh On BRL

While most EM central banks have moved into dovish wait-and-see stances, very few have cut rates during this cycle. Besides Brazil, only Turkey has this distinction and we’ve seen markets punish the lira in recent weeks. While the underlying fundamentals are much stronger in Brazil than in Turkey, we simply point out that market credibility is something that should not be taken for granted