Credit Writedowns » Switzerland

Where are the safe havens?

Edward Harrison — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 22:00:54 +0000

My latest post at Credit Writedowns Pro on protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis is now up. I outlined eight principal investing risks that I see for for 2012 and strategies to avoid those risks. At the same time, the thought you should have in the back of your head is that these are just the known unknowns. But that there are unknown unknowns which create so-called Knightean Uncertainty and make this a dangerous investing climate

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Full Text: Swiss National Bank Chairman, Philipp Hildebrand, resigns with immediate effect

Edward Harrison — Mon, 09 Jan 2012 13:42:40 +0000

The Swiss franc is moving up strongly on this news from the Swiss National Bank

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Dollar Softer On Spain Auction, Firm Euro Zone PMI Readings

BBH — Thu, 15 Dec 2011 12:42:22 +0000

The dollar is broadly weaker as Spanish auction goes well, euro zone PMIs better than expected. SNB held policy steady with no change to EUR/CHF floor. China, Singapore data help boost sentiment; Hungary reaches deal with banks on CHF loans

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Dollar Firm As Italy Yields Rise, Euro Zone IP Falls

BBH — Wed, 14 Dec 2011 12:30:09 +0000

The dollar is broadly firmer as Italian yields rise at 5-year bond auction, euro zone IP falls.Swiss data weak ahead of SNB meeting tomorrow; Norges Bank seen cutting rates 25 bp. China data gives cover for more PBOC easing; RBA suggests AUD weakness will help cushion economy

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Fasten Your Seatbelts: A Week that Can Rock your World

Marc Chandler — Thu, 01 Dec 2011 15:23:29 +0000

Starting today and running through next week, there is a key event nearly every day

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Full Text: FRB Statement on Coordinated Central Bank Action on Currency Swaps

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Nov 2011 22:15:16 +0000

"The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing coordinated actions to enhance their capacity to provide liquidity support to the global financial system. The purpose of these actions is to ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit to households and businesses and so help foster economic activity. "

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Foreign news: Pour Encourager les Autres

Edward Harrison — Tue, 29 Nov 2011 18:56:50 +0000

Foreign financial news for 29 November

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Why the Yen is Strong

Marc Chandler — Thu, 17 Nov 2011 02:15:06 +0000

The yen and the Swiss franc were seen as safe haven currencies during the tumultuous crisis in Europe. The Swiss National Bank has effectively and apparently cheaply took the franc out of the game. This may have increased some speculative pressure toward the yen. Yet dismissing the yen's strength as speculative in nature makes analysis superfluous. It misses the underlying imbalance that the yen's strength reflects

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Watch Switzerland on Monday

Marc Chandler — Fri, 04 Nov 2011 18:50:21 +0000

Switzerland reports its October consumer prices on Monday. This could be important. The Swiss National Bank's decision to cap the franc took place on the same day that the August CPI was reported (Sept 6). It showed a 0.3% month-over-month decline after a 0.8% decline in July. There are many observers who expect the SNB to lower its cap for the franc (that is raise the euro floor form CHF1.20 to CHF1.25 or higher) and see the risk of deflation as a potential trigger

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Quantitative Easing!!!

Guest Author — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 14:46:29 +0000

The BoJ announced today that it will expand its asset purchase programme by JPY5trn (USD66bn), with all the purchases being directed at JGB's. Add that to the GBP75bn (USD120bn) by the BoE, CHF50bn (USD57bn) by the SNB and the EUR341bn (USD477bn) expansion of the ECB balance sheet since the end of June, and it collectively adds up to USD720bn. Clearly this explains the market rally from the low

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Hungary: Controversial Swiss franc loan law goes into effect

Edward Harrison — Thu, 29 Sep 2011 12:30:32 +0000

Central European borrowers loaded up on cheap Swiss franc and euro loans (mainly from Austria and Switzerland) in the lead up to the credit crisis because of higher nominal rates in central Europe. When the crisis hit, these loans became expensive overnight. In Hungary, one of the hardest hit due to currency depreciation, the government has legislated a fix that goes into effect today

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Chinese shunning trade with French banks

Edward Harrison — Tue, 20 Sep 2011 14:42:11 +0000

Reuters has reported that Bank of China, a dealer in China's foreign exchange market, has stopped doing foreign exchange forwards and swaps with several European banks. Separately, sources say the European banks involved are Societe General, Credit Agricole, and BNP Paribas, the three banks being frozen out of the US money markets. Allegedly, the bank has also stopped trading with UBS because of worries about UBS's rogue trading losses

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Additional US dollar liquidity-providing operations over year-end

Guest Author — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 15:00:43 +0000

A statement by the Bank of England on market liquidity to be provided in co-ordination with other major international central banks

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Chart of the Day: Guess what the best performing asset market is

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 19:00:11 +0000

Here is a chart of the relative performance of various asset classes over the past year. One asset class outperforms the others… by a wide margin

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SNB Pledges New Managed Float to the Euro

Marc Chandler — Tue, 06 Sep 2011 11:30:01 +0000

Morning dominated by SNB’s decision to target EUR/CHF at 1.20; European stocks marginally higher. German August orders slumped -2.8%, first drop since March; US service-sector ISM key report today. In the EM space, China's economic growth may ease to below 9% in 2012; RBA turns neutral

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Eight thoughts at the end of a tumultuous Week

Marc Chandler — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 13:14:21 +0000

This has been an extremely tumultuous week throughout the capital and commodity markets. August itself has been a cruel month. The German stock market has lost around a quarter of its value. A marked slow down in the US and Europe in Q2 has given rise double dip fears in the former and compounding difficulty achieving deficit targets. There are a number of take-aways for investors from this week's developments

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The yen is a safe haven as Japan is the world’s largest creditor

Marc Chandler — Fri, 19 Aug 2011 14:00:00 +0000

The yen is a safe haven. That assertion seems so obvious, that why it is the case is rarely explored. It does not seem to be a function, as some suggest, of its trade surplus, but rather its position as a net international investment surplus country. That means that Japanese investors own more foreign assets than foreign investors own of Japanese assets. In fact, Japan is the world's largest creditor. Last year, it was in surplus by over $3 trillion. China is the world's second largest creditor at about $2.2 trillion and Germany is in third place with a $1.2 trillion surplus. Next are Saudi Arabia and Switzerland

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Underwhelming Policy Response Continues

Marc Chandler — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 11:15:36 +0000

Markets stable but tone remains fragile. SNB expanded its sight deposit target; no EUR/CHF peg. BoE’s decision to stay on hold was unanimous. New measures announced by China boost CNY internationalization and integration with

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Pegs, Pomp, and Direct Democracy

Casey Research — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 15:30:10 +0000

In characteristic form, the currency traders and those who trade in what is dubbed "financial news" woke up last week and discovered, à la Rip Van Winkle, that the Swiss franc was a haven currency charging higher. Never you mind that it has been on a steady carabiner-and-rope-assisted climb for well over a year. The experts missed all the action and profit of the ascent until the flag was nearly planted at the summit - a sure sign of an interim top

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There are five key events for investors this week

Marc Chandler — Mon, 15 Aug 2011 12:30:11 +0000

The first is the size of the ECB bond purchases. Second, the Franco-German summit tomorrow attracts attention. Third, the market continues to pare long Swiss franc positions with the local press suggesting the SNB and government may take new measures. Fourth, the minutes from the BOE’s MPC meeting form earlier this month will be released on Wednesday. Fifth, of this week’s slew of US economic data, the CPI may be the most important

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Three Thoughts for Friday

Marc Chandler — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 12:30:48 +0000

The past two weeks have seen large disruptions in the global capital markets and various policy responses. Market participants are having a difficult time getting a handle on these developments. There are three things investors should consider before the weekend: 1) German-French meeting next week is suggestive of a new initiative, 2) FOMC decision to keep rates low for 2 years may be tantamount to a type of QE and 3) while a peg of the Swiss franc seems to be a non-starter, officials have succeeded in breaking the powerful one-way momentum

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SNB takes action against strong CHF

Marc Chandler — Wed, 03 Aug 2011 11:40:46 +0000

US growth concerns and downgrade risk remain in play after budget deal. Euro zone periphery remains under pressure as ECB meets Thursday. SNB takes action against strong CHF; spike in EUR/CHF offers good entry point to go long

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Swiss Franc to Parity with the Euro – What are the Odds?

Marc Chandler — Wed, 20 Jul 2011 16:45:00 +0000

It is difficult for companies to cope with the competitive implications of the persistent strength of the Swiss franc. By the OECD calculations, the Swiss franc is the most over-valued currency in its universe near 45% over -valued against the dollar and 37.5% over-valued against the euro. The more simple Big Mac calculations, put the over-valuation against the US dollar at almost 115% and 63% over-valued against the euro

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How to Think about Currency Intervention Risks

Marc Chandler — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 14:00:27 +0000

Officials from Japan and Switzerland have stepped up their rhetoric protesting the price action that has propelled their respective currencies sharply higher. Contrary to market anxiety the risk of intervention remains low and lower for the SNB than the

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Uncertainty Drives Yen and Swiss Franc Higher

Marc Chandler — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 12:00:11 +0000

BBH CurrencyView North American Update US dollar mostly weaker versus majors USD/JPY reaches record low as uncertainty remains elevated; G7 to discuss Swiss franc stronger on safe haven bids; SNB remains on hold The dollar declined against most currencies today. The yen is 1.5% stronger trading around the 78.50 level after a very volatile session,

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UBS Faces LIBOR Manipulation Probe

Guest Author — Thu, 17 Mar 2011 11:53:44 +0000

By Warren Mosler As previously discussed, the US should outlaw the use of libor by its banking system. It makes no sense to allow US dollar rate setting for our banks to be set overseas by the BBA. Setting our banking system’s dollar rates is the Fed’s responsibility. And, to further make the point, note

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Japan’s Nuclear Accident is Impacting European Politics

Marc Chandler — Wed, 16 Mar 2011 15:24:10 +0000

By Marc Chandler The Japanese nuclear accident has implications for Europe. The EU wants to have stress tests on members nuclear plants. The tests are not mandatory, but may be difficult to refuse. Switzerland has halted its nuclear program, according to reports. Perhaps the most interesting response is in Germany. Chancellor Merkel has been an

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Indian banks issuing bonds in Swiss Francs, Really…?

Marc Chandler — Thu, 27 Jan 2011 17:00:00 +0000

by Marc Chandler A number of Indian banks have begun issuing Swiss franc denominated bonds, ostensibly to raise cheap funds and meet the demand in Europe for emerging market debt. Reports suggest that this is the first of such issues in almost a quarter of a century. While Indian banks seem well capitalized presently, the

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EUR/CHF Continues To Make Historic Lows On Euro Zone Tensions

Marc Chandler — Wed, 22 Dec 2010 12:18:53 +0000

from the BBH Currency Strategy Team The euro is slightly firmer today vs. the dollar today, but continues to make new historic lows vs. Swiss franc just below 1.25, suggesting that euro zone tensions remain strong. EM currencies continue to firm, suggesting a bit of decoupling from the euro zone crisis. However, trading ranges are

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Outlook for Swiss National Bank

Marc Chandler — Tue, 14 Dec 2010 14:48:25 +0000

by Marc Chandler The Swiss National Bank meets Thursday. A change in its monetary stance is not likely for several months at least. However, the SNB will provide new GDP and inflation forecasts that investors may find helpful. The Swiss government provided new forecasts today, ahead of the SNB. Growth this year is put at

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Chart of the Day: The World’s Top 50 Banks (bubble chart version)

Edward Harrison — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 16:14:08 +0000

I have written a few posts showing you the ranking for the big banks globally, with a special emphasis on Europe because of systemic risk. But here’s a great bubble chart that gives you a visual on the relative size of the big banks globally. (Hat tip Barry Ritholtz). Of the large countries on this

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Chart of the Day: Rolling Bear Market in Various Currencies Since 2007

Edward Harrison — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 13:24:46 +0000

In yesterday’s daily note, David Rosenberg showed us this chart of the wild swings in the foreign exchange markets since the beginning of 2007. His interpretation of the chart is that it demonstrates a "series of rolling currency depreciations" in a beggar thy neighbour world of weak aggregate demand. The competitive currency devaluation theme recently

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Swiss Franc Hits Record vs Euro; Yen Gains

Marc Chandler — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 07:00:00 +0000

The BBH CurrencyView Highlights The Swiss franc rose to a record against the euro while the yen also continued to edge higher through the Asian session as some improved Japanese figures failed to dent the risk-off momentum. EUR/CHF dropped as low as 1.2933, and USD/CHF dropped to 1.0227, near the 8-month low of 1.0221 reached

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Stresses Remain In Play For Europe

Win Thin — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 15:45:06 +0000

From Win Thin, Senior Currency Strategist at BBH. Bloomberg headline reads “Europe’s Budget Cuts Pose Risk to Debt Ratings, Moody’s Says.” Really?The article goes on to quote the agency as saying budget cuts in response to the European crisis will weigh on growth and thus increase the risks of rating downgrades. What would Moody’s have

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Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc Firmer In Thin Holiday Trading

Marc Chandler — Mon, 05 Jul 2010 21:39:53 +0000

Highlights US dollar was mostly firmer vs. the majors as the risk off trading environment carried over from last week, albeit in thin holiday trading. Yen and Swiss franc were largely firmer, while EM FX was mixed. Biggest gainers on the day vs. USD were PLN, RON, MYR, KRW, and TWD, while biggest losers vs.

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Dollar, Yen, and Swiss Franc Firmer In Thin Holiday Trading originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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