Credit Writedowns » stress tests

Chart of the Day: European Bank Recapitalization

Global Macro Monitor — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 04:34:04 +0000

A chart with a country by country breakdown of the over 100 billion euros of additional capital needed by euro zone banks

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Why is a bank that failed the stress tests in Spain getting bought at a 31% premium?

Edward Harrison — Fri, 07 Oct 2011 16:12:17 +0000

I don’t follow the Spanish banking sector well enough to know what hidden value Banco Pastor has but I find it curious that it is the subject of a takeover bid at a 31% premium by Spain’s fifth largest bank, Banco Popular

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The End of the Fake Recovery

Edward Harrison — Wed, 05 Oct 2011 13:25:50 +0000

This is going to be a relatively long post. But I think it’s important. I have been meaning to update my thinking about the “Fake Recovery” which I heralded in early 2009 as the economy in the US began to turn. My view is that without policy support this recovery is now on its last legs. Here, I want to review how we got here in the context of the banking system and what that means about the banking crisis right now

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2011 EU wide stress test results: 8 failures, 16 near failures

Edward Harrison — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 16:11:06 +0000

8 banks out 90 banks fail: Five in Spain, two from Greece and one from Austria (Spain’s CAM, CatalunyaCaixa, Banco Pastor, Unnim & Grupo Caja; Austria’s Volksbanken; Greece’s Eurobank & ATEBank). One additional bank, Helaba, the German Landesbank, has pulled out at the last second after also failing. I know that Banco Pastor has a

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It’s All About Spain

Edward Harrison — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 15:00:56 +0000

I was on CNBC's Power Lunch yesterday talking about European debt markets in the wake of the Irish stress tests. I certainly think the Irish stress tests were a significant event. But the Euro Crisis is really all about Spain

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Las Ciudades Fantasmas

Edward Harrison — Wed, 30 Mar 2011 13:00:18 +0000

Thanks to Iza Kaminska for pointing me to the video below of row after row of incomplete homes in Spanish host towns, las ciudades fantasmas. Spain has the same problem of overbuilding that the U.S. had during its bubble days. Now that things have gone pear-shaped in the residential property markets, you see these ghost

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Stressing Out over European Bank Stress Tests

Marc Chandler — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 16:00:31 +0000

By Marc Chandler The newly created European Banking Authority will be overseeing the stress tests on almost 90 European banks. Recall that the stress tests last year met broad criticism for the lack of rigor. It was anticipated that the EBA would indeed provide for a more robust test this year. However, doubts are already

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European Woes Weigh on Markets

Marc Chandler — Tue, 07 Sep 2010 11:00:00 +0000

Highlights The US dollar is broadly higher against most major and emerging market currencies today, with the yen and Swiss franc being the notable exceptions. With last week’s US employment data taking the immediate focus off the US and the potential for QEII, the market has been able give full attention to the negative European

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Interpreting The Stress Tests

Edward Hugh — Wed, 28 Jul 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Evidently there is now a considerable debate out there about the famous (or should that be infamous) CEBS stress tests. Methodologically all sorts of weaknesses have been identified, but in many cases these are decidedly beside the point. It is important to be aware what the tests were (and weren’t) designed to show. They were,

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Monday Market Preview: Equities Higher, Dollar Soft, Bonds Mixed In Wake Of Stress Tests

Marc Chandler — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 11:45:25 +0000

From the BBH Currency Strategy Team Highlights US dollar is mostly softer so far today vs. the majors, as sentiment remains overall good after the stress test results were released (see below). Price action since the results came out and the lack of euro follow-through buying suggests real doubts remain in the markets, however (see

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Draft Document Suggests Stress Tests Not That Stressful, Euro Gets Hammered

Win Thin — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 14:47:13 +0000

From Win Thin, Senior Currency Strategist at BBH. Newswires have reportedly gotten hold of the draft document for the stress tests, and it’s not pretty. It appears that the worst may be true with regards to how bonds would be subjected to testing. Draft said that haircuts would only be on bonds held in banks’

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Dollar Soft Ahead Of Stress Tests As European Data Still Strong

Marc Chandler — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 11:30:00 +0000

From the Brown Brothers Harriman Currency Strategy Team Highlights US dollar is mostly softer so far today vs. the majors, hurt by stronger than expected data out of Europe (see below) ahead of the European bank stress test results around noon EST. The euro has recouped most of this week’s losses as the 1.27 area

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Euro Weakens As More Stress Test Leaks Are Disappointing

Marc Chandler — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 11:30:49 +0000

From the BBH Currency Strategy Team Highlights US dollar is softer on the day vs. the majors, gaining only against EUR and SEK as markets search for direction ahead of Friday’s stress test results. The euro is trading softly after making a marginal new high for the cycle vs. the dollar at 1.3029 Monday, and

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Talk of All Spanish Banks Passing Stress Tests Boosts The Euro

Win Thin — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 20:58:50 +0000

From Win Thin, Senior Currency Strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman. Spanish media is quoting Finance Minister Salgado as saying all Spanish banks had passed the stress tests. Spokesperson later tried to walk these comments back, saying they were taken out of context. Really? Newswire service has translated the piece, with the following bullet points: 1)

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German Institution Said To Fail Stress Test

Marc Chandler — Mon, 19 Jul 2010 16:23:04 +0000

Marc Chandler is on holiday. This post comes via Win Thin, senior currency strategist at BBH. Newswires are reporting that a big German institution failed the bank stress tests. The fact that this institution had already been taken over by the German government tells us that it was not exactly in great shape. Indeed, we

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What I am Going to Think About on Vacation

Marc Chandler — Fri, 16 Jul 2010 14:00:00 +0000

Things I am Going to Think About On Vacation Like others, I try to clean off my desk before my summer vacation. This year it is particularly difficult because there seems to be several unresolved issues. I will mull them over and hopefully my subconscious will have more success than my consciousness in working through

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Jim Bianco Expects `Retrenchment’ of Stocks

Edward Harrison — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 13:30:00 +0000

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, talked with Bloomberg’s Susan Li about the outlook for U.S. stocks. When Li asks him about the 3pc gains we saw yesterday, he said the markets were oversold but that he expects stocks to retrench. Notice he talks about gold and Treasuries as asset classes of choice, which I

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Text: EU Statement on Stress Tests of 91 European Banks

Edward Harrison — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 21:23:09 +0000

The following is the press release released by the EU on the subject of the European Bank Stress Tests. There will be 91 institutions undergoing the tests. I have provided a list of the specific institutions below. The greatest number of banks come from Spain. Together the banks hold 65% of Europe’s banking assets. Greatest

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Early Reports on European Stress Tests — Ain’t So Tough

Marc Chandler — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 16:00:00 +0000

Some reports suggest that the stress that European banks may be tested for include a 17% loss on Greek bonds and a 3% loss on Spanish bonds German bunds and possibly French bonds will not be stressed–that is to say the stress test will not include a long on bonds from those two. While these

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European Banks: Pre-Stress Test Anxiety

Marc Chandler — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 14:00:00 +0000

The market awaits for the European Bank Supervisors to provide more details about the stress tests. If the market has a better sense of the robustness of the stress tests it might lift some uncertainty among investors. There are several reasons why investors are anxious. Many of these are listed here, cobbled together from various

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Rogoff Sees No Double-Dip But Beginning of China Property `Collapse’

Edward Harrison — Tue, 06 Jul 2010 06:30:26 +0000

Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, talks with Bloomberg’s Susan Li i Hong Kong about the global economy and China’s real estate market and economy. Rogoff also discusses the outlook for European banks, the global economy and stimulus policies. Major takeaways: Double dip is not

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More on European Stress Tests

Marc Chandler — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 14:33:39 +0000

Stress tests on European banks have emerged as a key talking point. The criteria is not clear, though European officials are apparently telling anyone who is interested that the these tests are more robust than the previous tests conducted last October. One difference between the US and European approaches is that the former indicated that

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The largest European banks by assets

Edward Harrison — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 13:47:20 +0000

According to CNBC, the European Union will stress-test its 25 largest banks in much the same way as the US has done. There has been considerable wrangling on whether the results of the stress tests will be publicly available on a per-institution basis. The latest I have heard is that all countries are onboard with

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Dollar Correction Likely To Continue

Marc Chandler — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 11:26:13 +0000

Highlights The US dollar is generally consolidating this week’s losses in quiet and largely uneventful turnover. The shallowness of dollar bounces warns that the downside correction is not complete. Given the structural arguments that the euro bears drew upon to fuel the single currency’s 13%+ decline between mid-April and earlier this month, the risk seems

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ECRI Leading Economic Index at 42-week Low; Recovery is already fading

Edward Harrison — Tue, 25 May 2010 18:02:59 +0000

A month ago I showed you a bunch of charts which indicated that the US economy was slowing. The upshot of the charts was that the economy was going to stall in six to nine months and that stock prices would reflect this – and they have. Amongst the charts was the change in the

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The fake stress tests and the coming wave of second mortgage writedowns

Edward Harrison — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 19:30:04 +0000

About a month ago I wrote a post called “The coming wave of second mortgage writedowns” the gist of which was that the big four banks (Citi, JP, BofA, and Wells) had a shed load of exposure to now worthless second mortgages. With many first mortgages now hopelessly underwater, it stands to reason that second

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Geithner: jusqu’ici tout va bien

Edward Harrison — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 19:56:28 +0000

You remember those stress tests the government conducted at the largest too-big-to-fail financial institutions. They have long since been forgotten. But, they are a relevant topic of conversation because some of the policy makers’ thinking in administering them of has come to light in the Atlantic’s recent exposé of Treasury Secretary Geithner. I suggest you

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On releasing Citi from TARP and banking by accounting subterfuge

Edward Harrison — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:54:41 +0000

Credit Writedowns has made it clear how little will there is in Washington for substantive reform in financial services. But, let’s be more explicit in this post about what policy makers are doing. I will use the recent Citigroup TARP brouhaha and changes to the implementation timetable of accounting rules as the vehicle for this

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The wildly optimistic view of Treasury’s handling of the crisis

Edward Harrison — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:46:48 +0000

I was reading Kid Dynamite’s account of the recent Treasury – Finance Blogger meeting after having read a bunch of others (see them all in Abnormal Returns’ Nov 4th links). And I was struck by his characterization of the thinking at Treasuryregarding the financial crisis. I want to highlight two points and ask the question:

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What the stress tests reveal about Obama’s thinking on banks

Edward Harrison — Sat, 23 May 2009 11:39:19 +0000

Kyle, a long-time reader, recently asked why I think mark-to-market accounting actually matters. After alI, savvy investors know that accounting does not necessarily change cash flows. I think his question has a lot to do with not just accounting, but also with the stress tests. Kyle writes: My point is that it has really NOT

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Saturday Night Live Grades the Stress Tests

Edward Harrison — Mon, 11 May 2009 15:47:59 +0000

I forgot to add this to my links. Very funny Saturday Night Live clip spoofing Timothy Geithner. Related Posts Sarah Palin on “Saturday Night Live” 20 Oct 2008 Black: Stress tests and the Big Lie 9 May 2009 At least six banks need more capital under stress tests 29 Apr 2009 More About: banks, capital,

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Black: Stress tests and the Big Lie

Edward Harrison — Sat, 09 May 2009 22:36:23 +0000

I found this story and video of Bill Black on Tech Ticker (hat tip Larry Doyle). Basically, Black thinks the stress tests were a joke, a common theme heard from those in the know. Listen to what he says about a really difficult stress test we gave Fannie Mac ten years ago. Results of the

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Timothy Geithner on Charlie Rose

Edward Harrison — Sat, 09 May 2009 00:21:56 +0000

In case you missed it, this is Tim Geithner talking stress tests this past Wednesday on Charlie Rose. Related Posts Tim Geithner on Charlie Rose 11 Mar 2009 Ackman and Stigliz talk Stress Tests with Charlie Rose 27 Apr 2009 A conversation about AIG on Charlie Rose 18 Mar 2009 More About: bailouts, capital, Charlie

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A conversation about AIG on Charlie Rose 18 Mar 2009

Ken Lewis defends Bank of America’s stress test results

Edward Harrison — Fri, 08 May 2009 14:53:13 +0000

In the CNBC video below, Ken Lewis defends his company’s performance on the stress test and answers some pointed questions in the John Thain – Ben Bernanke – Ken Lewis – Hank Paulson he said she said match. He also details how Bank of America plans to raise the $34 billion in capital to deal

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Ken Lewis defends Bank of America’s stress test results originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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FDIC Statement on the Stress Tests

Edward Harrison — Thu, 07 May 2009 22:07:28 +0000

This came to me in my inbox seconds ago: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman Sheila C. Bair today commented on the release of the results of the Capital Assessment Program. Chairman Bair said: "I want to commend the Federal Reserve for leading the stress assessment exercise and believe that this effort will serve to

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FDIC Statement on the Stress Tests originally appeared on Credit Writedowns

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