Video: My Blackberry is not working

Stuff like this is a very bad sign for Research in Motion as their share of the mobile handset market has plummeted to 9%. Shares are at a seven-year low

M.F. Euro Takes Down Equities

Lots of debate out there what took the market down today. We’re not certain you can tag the first 15 S&P points on a single factor — MF Global, euro, Italy, yen intervention and strong dollar, or simple profit taking — but willing to up our bet the last 15 points, which began around 2 PM, was the floppy Euro. The Euros will have to find a way — and soon — to come up with a hard number and clear path to the big bazooka EFSF to head off contagion to Italy. This whole exercise is about restoring confidence because that is what, at the end of the day, drives sovereign credit fundamentals. If Italy blows, game over

Stock Market Melt Up: November 1998 or December 2008?

It’s clear from the 1998 chart that the S&P500 was still in a major uptrend, which can’t be said of today’s market. Interestingly the 1998 20.7 percent 17-day spike started with a similar nasty bear trap. Remember, John Bull can stand many things, but he can’t stand two zero percent and will trump almost any rational discourse of the fundamentals once he takes control of the market. Always with a stop, comrades. Good luck!

Another Bear Market Trap

The sharp rally off the October 4th intraday low of the S&P 500 is a result of the assumed prospect of a real plan to save the Euro and slightly improved U.S. economic numbers indicating that we may not be in a recession right now. In addition the market was probably oversold after its rapid plunge below the 1260-1370 trading zone. We think the market will soon be disappointed on both counts

Is the Euro Driving the S&P500?

In case you have noticed recently the Euro and S&P500 seem to be moving together almost tick for tick. Here are the daily moves in futures over the past month. Makes you think they’re both dancing to the same tune by the Algorithmics, no

Here are the S&P500′s key levels

It’s kind of useless, in our opinion, to be looking at the technicals as the market approaches the big life or death event. The EU debt plan is either going to be taken positively, in which case the S&P500 will break through the 1230-1234 resistance level; or it will be negative and the market will breakdown, most likely to new lows. No muddle through scenario, in our opinion

Markets Cautious Amid Hopes for the Policy Bazooka

G20 Finance Ministers said they expect decisive action on 10/23; dollar pares back some recent losses. Markets likely to remain focused on Europe this week with Greek austerity vote and EU summit. EM markets this week focus on rate decisions in Brazil, Turkey and Philippines; South Africa

Investor: I have an MBA and keep losing money; how can this be?

This is pretty funny. (Hat tip Scott)

Risk Rally Fades Ahead of Key Technical Levels

Dollar moves broadly higher after risk rally ran out of steam; European stocks slide from 2-month high. Extreme market positioning, technicals and positive macro data enabled unwind of safe haven bets. South Korea’s central banks keeps rates steady, China’s exports slow; Mexico likely to cut rates tomorrow

Gold, S&P and the Euro – Correlations Revisited

The elevated volatility levels have made for difficult times for many investors. To simplify the complexity, there is much reference to risk-on and risk-off. We look at the correlations (60-day rolling correlation of the percentage change) between gold, S&P and the euro and find a more nuanced and varied relationship than many intuitively assume

Point of Maximum Pessimism?

We have been structurally bearish on equities since Absolute Return Partners was established in 2002. ‘Structurally bearish’ does not imply that we, or our clients, have had no exposure to equities throughout this period. Neither does it mean that we have been expecting equities to post a loss every year for the past nine years. No, ‘structurally bearish’ is a term we (and others) use to express our view on multiple trends. In a structural bear market, price/earnings (P/E) ratios decline; i.e. corporate earnings need to outgrow the decline in valuations for equities to post positive returns. Equity investors are swimming against the tide, so to speak.

Now, nine years after having made that call, we begin to spot real value again with European equities trading at 9.4 times trailing 12-month earnings and 7.6 times next year’s earnings (see chart 3). A price-to-book value just below 1 and a dividend yield of 5.3% does not exactly make the value story any less compelling

More on the S&P bear market and the central bank liquidity train

Just a few moments ago I posted on the fact that the US is officially in bear market territory. On Twitter, I said that “in Fall 2008, 10-year yields went to extreme lows and then the liquidity train went into overdrive. Stocks rallied, bonds fell.” I wonder if we will have a repeat now. Felix Zulauf believes so