Yesterday, I wrote “Some think this is a secular bull – a view I am not discussing in this post.  Others see this as a cyclical bull-market a.k.a bear market rally  I would put Jeremy Grantham in this category.  I would also put myself here, although I do think short-covering has made this rally dangerously [...]

The data for personal consumption came out yesterday.  However, I have not had a chance to look at the data and write a post until now.  What I see right now is not good for a sustainable recovery.  Let me tell you why and how this could impact the chances for getting a longer cyclical [...]

There has been a lot of chatter in the markets about why U.S. equities continue to rally.  Three distinct viewpoints have surfaced, two of which are bearish and one which is bullish.  Let me share those theories with you.
1. Market Manipulation aka. the Plunge Protection Team
In this storyline, someone (probably the famed Plunge Protection Team) [...]

Actually, I lied.  He really is not that bullish at all.  But he does sound relatively upbeat by comparison to 5 months ago.
I have seen Whitney Tilson of T2 Partners a lot in the media of late.  The two most recent appearances are with Tech Ticker where he talked about house prices and with the [...]

This is the conclusion that Wachovia Chief Economist Mark Vitner draws from the very bullish consumer confidence number we have just seen.  To fill you in on the details, the Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index leapt from a poor 40.8 reading in April to a less poor 54.9 reading for May. This was [...]

I want to use this holiday weekend to fill in some gaps on major issues because I think we are at a key turning point. Because the economy has left the freefall stage and I have been more positive, I have been getting the feeling that I am the bull in a room of bears.  [...]

You have probably seen stocks down today.  The dow is off nearly 200 points and the Nasda is down 50.  But, everything American is getting whacked today. The U.S. dollar, stocks, and bonds.  Look at the chart on Treasurys here – especially the long end.

Something is happening in terms of how investors see the risk [...]

Now at his buy-side Canadian shop Gluskin Sheff, former Merrill Lynch chief North American economist David Rosenberg is sounding as bearish as ever.  He sees the recent market rally as a bear market rally and envisages a re-testing of March 2009 lows.  He also fails to see a recovery.  After all, one can have a [...]

The Bear here is Meredith Whitney, who says that bank stocks will return to negative earnings in the second quarter.  That’s a big and very specific call that is very much out of line with the consensus.  In an interview with Maria Bartiromo, Whitney says she did foresee the recent rally in financials, but that [...]

The U.S. stock market has been off to the races, since hitting a low in March.  The S&P 500 has skyrocketed a massive 34%, erasing all of the losses of 2009.  Is this a case of much too fast too soon?  And is this a bear market rally?
Before I tell you my thoughts, let me [...]