You have probably noticed a change in tone at Credit Writedowns since about June, but a lot more in the past month or so. Once mildly bullish due to the deeply oversold levels this Spring, I have become increasingly alarmed at the unjustified strength of the recent market rally.
My most recent post explaining my concern, [...]

Right now many economists believe the US economy is poised for recovery.  Even I believe the economy will recover by year’s end. But for the man in the street, things hardly look like a recovery right now. Harried by falling house prices, foreclosure and lost employment, the US consumer is over-indebted and has run out [...]

Stock markets are seriously overbought right now.  But, the rally in shares has been bolstered by better than expected economic data and earnings reports.  I first pointed to a rally in shares in March, but I didn’t get fully onboard until April (after all, people like Louise Yamada were still pointing to downside risk).
But, by [...]

This comes via David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff.

The week that was After four weeks of decline with a total loss of 7.0%, the equity market turned in a like-sized gain this past week re-igniting the bulls. With tech leading the way, the Nasdaq has managed to rally to a [...]

I just read a CNBC story which fails to mention CNBC’s involvement in the apparently erroneous report that Nouriel Roubini has suddenly become more bullish. Is this omission justified? 
The controversy centers on statements Roubini made regarding the timing of a technical recovery in the United States.  Yesterday, it was reported on CNBC and elsewhere [...]

I have introduced the concept of a technical recovery to describe the anticipated weak recovery period that lies ahead.  Van Hoisington and Lacy Hunt have a different term to remember: Partial recovery.  They see the potential that a partial recovery will end this business cycle, and that’s not bullish for stocks:
Recessions end when the National [...]

David Rosenberg is out with a bearish piece on equities today (I hop that doesn’t surprise you).  He sees the market as still overvalued at these levels. The key, he say is that most of the rally has been built on multiple expansion and not earnings growth. Here is what he says (emphasis added)
We heard [...]

Here is a Marc Faber interview from March. It is well worth watching because he calls things perfectly through June: economic news, equity markets, and commodity markets.
This is billed as a Czech TV interview.  But the audio is pretty bad. So, the interviewer may be a Czech with halting English, but this is hardly [...]

PIMCO, the world’s largest bond fund, has a new investment outlook by Founder Bill Gross. In it he says that we are in a long-term lower growth pattern as the asset-based economy of yore has melted away.  He warns that this means risky assets should not be one’s investments of choice.
Here are a few choice [...]

Last month I said that June was significant for two reasons.  First, we are going to get our first test of data that could disappoint, which would spell trouble for an overbought market. But, just as important, we need to watch the industrials because there is going to be no sustainable recovery unless these cyclical [...]