Post Tagged with: "stocks"
Protecting wealth in a world of recurring crisis
Happy Wednesday. I know the news is ‘less good’ today than it was when I last wrote you but writing these weeklies always puts me in a more positive frame of mind. Nevertheless, today’s topic is about downside risk. My hope is to frame the economic scenario globally and then to offer some strategies of mitigating what I believe is significant downside investment risk
Chart of the Day: The Shanghai Bounce
The Shanghai has put in its best two day performance since September ’09, rising 5.8 percent. After its post crash peak in August 2009, Chinese stocks have fallen almost 40 percent before hitting their lows last Friday
The fireworks will start with Spain or Italy
Here’s what I had to say about Europe on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Thursday night. I’m not bullish on the real economy there (but I still expect relative share outperformance due to lower P/Es). The US is having a bit of a data surge to the upside: housing, employment, manufacturing, all of these numbers have been better of late
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2012 (short version)
Yesterday morning, I did the first weekly newsletter on my ten surprises for 2012. Here’s a brief version of the list
Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2012
As always, I present you Byron Wien’s Ten Surprises for 2011. He is bullish yet again – on both the US and emerging markets
A Tale of Two Markets
The Shanghai has turned down this evening after opening up and looks to continue the downtrend. That is one ugly chart. Meanwhile, the S&P500 looks like it really wants to resolve its wedge formation to the upside. After a year of head fakes, bull and bear traps, traders may have lost a little trust in the charts, however. A good employment number on Friday may provide a nice catalyst for some resolution
Chart of the Day: S&P500 2011 Heat Map
A visual representation of how stocks in the S&P 500 fared in 2011 with Green for gains and red for losses
Chart of the Day: Market Year in Review
Wow! Who would of thunk it. The Dow the only major global equity index positive for the year. U.S. Treasuries up 15-20 percent, the dollar index (Dixe) positive; Brazil and Chinese equities down 20 percent and India down almost 25 percent. Copper was on everybody’s buy list at the beginning year, finished down over 20 percent; and foodstuffs had nowhere to go but north, finishing flat after spiking earlier in the year and taking most of the political leaders in North Africa with them
Volatility Lurks
The S&P 500 volatility index – the VIX – is a measurement of volatility expectations. It has fallen 50% since the (latest) agreement to save the euro was announced. If the VIX falls to 18, call options are worth considering
Dollar Softer As Markets Head Into Holiday Mode
US dollar is softer vs. majors Friday as markets head into holiday mode; sentiment improving a bit in the absence of any major negative euro zone developments. France Q3 GDP revised weaker, Italy confidence lower than expected; euro zone recession in 2012 will likely exacerbate debt problems. RUB outperforms as central bank narrows interest rate corridor; TRY weaker after central bank auctions only $50 mln today vs. $1 bln bid
Market Sentiment Improves After ECB LTRO
US dollar is mixed vs. majors Thursday as market sentiment improving a bit in the wake of ECB’s 3-year LTRO. Merkel advisor Bofinger warned that the euro zone has six months to solve the debt crisis; Greek creditors reportedly balking at IMF haircut proposal; France downgrade rumor made the rounds again. HUF stabilizes after S&P downgrade but further weakness likely; Turkey central bank leaves rates steady at 5.75%, as expected
The 2012 Blind Side: China’s Housing Bust
Foreign Affairs has just posted a must read piece, “China’s Real Estate Bubble May Have Just Popped”, which will sound very familiar to Global Macro Monitor readers. We’re going to be spend a lot time over the holidays thinking how this plays out in China’s financial sector and the implications for markets