Post Tagged with: "stocks"
Chart of the Day: US Stock Performance in September 2010 Not the Best Since 1939
Over the past few days, I have heard from a number of stock market analysts say that this past September’s rally in the S&P500 was the best performance since at least 1939. That’s 71 years! This afternoon, I heard an analyst describing why the market was up so much. She said it is because earnings
David Rosenberg on Why David Tepper is Wrong
This an excerpt from yesterday’s daily commentary from David Rosenberg. Two things happened on Friday: First, a very successful hedge fund manager was on CNBC and (between songs, apparently) told viewers that the equity market now was a one-way ticket up. And, second, the durable goods report. As for this very successful hedge fund manager
A Recovery That Looks Like Recession
by Comstock Partners For some strange reason a number of economists and strategists seen on TV and quoted in the press maintain that the exceedingly weak recovery we are now undergoing is really a "normal" or "average" recovery. Nothing could be further from the truth. This is not our opinion, but is based on fact.
Rosenberg: Seven Investment Strategies For A Deflationary Environment
The following is an excerpt of David Rosenberg’s Monday Breakfast with Dave missive. INVESTMENT STRATEGY IN A DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT Focus on safe yield: High-quality corporates (non-cyclical, high cash reserves, minimal refinancing needs). Corporate balance sheets are in very good shape. Equities: focus on reliable dividend growth/yield; preferred shares (“income” orientation). Starbucks just caught on to
Pace of Equity Flows into Asia are Accelerating
Asian equities have been a market darling this year, but the pace of inflows have increased in recent weeks. At around $534 mln, foreign inflows into Indonesia this month after nearly a quarter of the entire year’s. The $222 mln inflow into Philippine shares already this month is nearly half of the year-to-date amount. Foreign
The Chances of a Double Dip
by Gary Shilling Investor attitudes have reversed abruptly in recent months. As late as last March, most translated the year-long robust rise in stocks, foreign currencies, commodities and the weakness in Treasury bonds that had commenced a year earlier into robust economic growth – the "V" recovery. As a result, investors early this year believed
Chart of the day: Stocks for the long run?
This chart comes via David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff. Rosenberg tops it off with this commentary: While we are “underweight” equities as an asset class, we aren’t exactly zero-weight. There are always things to buy and S.I.R.P. does involve a dividend theme, and as such it is encouraging to see company after company, even in
Chart of the Day: Beware Downward Adjustments to Earnings Estimates
by John Lounsbury David Rosenberg, chief economist at Toronto’s Gluskin Sheff, is continually publishing interesting graphs. Below one from today’s newsletter which shows the relationship between 12-month forward earnings estimates for the S&P 500 and the value of the index itself: For about 2/3 of the 17 years the earnings forecasts and stock prices track
Hussman: Watch the lagging indicators
John Hussman is not buying the recent risk-on sentiment that has developed since September began. For example, retail sales numbers are to be released tomorrow. Marc Chandler has said that a number above consensus estimates of 0.3% growth "will likely be seen as further confirmation that that exceptionally soft patch the economy had slipped into
The Significance of Consumer Deleveraging
by Comstock Partners For some time it has been our view that the recent recession, unlike all other post-war recessions, was caused by a credit crisis, and that it would therefore be followed by a series of weak recoveries and frequent recessions until consumers successfully deleveraged their exceedingly heavy debt loads. That scenario now seems
Minack: If fiscal policy is dead, what does that mean for risk assets?
From Gerard Minack of Morgan Stanley (hat tip Scott): The past two years have demonstrated the high cost of these policy errors. More to the point, the private sector now seems leery of debt and aiming to increase saving. This matters a lot, in our view. It means that monetary policy is battling two headwinds.
The Pause That Doesn’t Refresh
By Comstock Partners The Fed tried to thread a needle and ended up satisfying nobody. They confirmed to all the doubters that the economy was indeed weak and that they really couldn’t do much about it without resorting to completely untried and unorthodox measures with unpredictable results. To all intents and purposes the Fed showed